UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne Results and Betting Recap

It was another huge night for The Fight Predictor! UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne saw us go 4-1 on our picks for a profit of 9.51 units. Add that to our 14.97 unit profit at the TUF Nations Finale and you have an almost +25 unit week which is an impressive number by anyones standards!

In the main event, we had Fabricio Werdum to defeat Travis Browne. Our bet was 3 units at 2.40, but by fight time, the line on Werdum had climbed to 2.96. If you tailed us, you were definitely on the right side! Not only did Werdum control the action in the clinch and on the ground, but he dominated Travis Browne on the feet. Most people didn’t expect Werdum would be able to have success standing with Browne. We profit 4.2 units.

The last leg of our third parlay was Miesha Tate to defeat Liz Carmouche. Round 1 saw Carmouche control Tate in the grappling and land 2 takedowns. Round 2 was more even, Tate won the early striking, but Carmouche was able to lay on top for much of the rest of the round. Round 3 was the opposite, seeing an agressive Miesha Tate land a couple takedowns and eventually take the back of Carmouche. Tate came very close to securing a rear naked choke, but Carmouche was just able to fend it off. We scored the fight 29-28 for Tate, giving her the second and third rounds. For once the judges got it right across the board, all 3 scored it the same as us and awarded Miesha Tate the decision. We profit 2.55 units.

Our second bet of the main card was Donald Cerrone to defeat Edson Barboza. It was a fight where we expected fireworks and we expected it would either be fight of the night or a quick finish. Initially, things looked bad for Cerrone as Barboza appeared to clip him a couple times. In an awesome turn of events for us, Cerrone dropped Barboza with a hard jab and then jumped on his back and got a rear naked choke finish. Our 3 unit bet at 2.00 profited 3.00 units.

The second leg of our Magalhaes parlay was Brad Tavares to defeat Yoel Romero. The parlay was 3 units at 2.34. Round 1 saw Romero with some impressive grappling and striking, even rag dolling Tavares a couple times. Round 2 was pretty similar, except Tavares managed to get in some decent strikes of his own. At best, we were 19-19 heading to the third, but it was more likely 20-18 for Romero. The third round was similar to the first with Romero rag dolling Tavares to the ground at will and getting the best of Tavares in the striking exchanges. We had no argument with all three judges scoring the fight in favour of Yoel Romero 30-27. We lost our 3 unit parlay bet.

The first leg of our third parlay was Caiao Magalhaes to defeat Luke Zachrich. Magalhaes won the fight via TKO with knees to the body and punches to his downed opponent early in round number 1.

The first leg of our second parlay was Jordan Mein to defeat the debuting Hermani Perpetuo. Round 1 saw Mein control the action while landing a nasty knee before gaining top position and landing g & p. Round 2 saw Mein also winning the striking before landing a nice takedown towards the end of the round. Round 3 saw Mein controlling most of the action again, but around mid-round, Perpetuo locked in a very deep leg lock. Luckily, Mein was able to survive and make it to the bell, but the round clearly went Perpetuo’s way. The judges got it right in scoring a split decision for Jordan Mein (it was surprising that one judge scored the fight for Perpetuo, but the net result was the same).

We missed the first few fights of the card, but we were pleasantly pleased when we saw the results. Our first parlay was 3 units at 1.92 on Derrick Lewis and Dustin Ortiz to win their respective fights. Lewis finished Jack May in the first round of their heavyweight bout. Ortiz took 3 full rounds and was in a very close battle, but was given the win over Ray Borg via split decision. We profit 2.76 units.

In one week, UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira will be live from the Baltimore Arena in Baltimore, Maryland and we’ll have you fully covered with our predictions and bets. Our early predictions and bets for the Pay-Per-View portion of the card have already been posted so we’ll just have our full predictions and bets coming out mid-week. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Good Bets:

Werdum over Browne. 3 units at 2.40 (+4.20 units)
Tate/Mein Parlay. 3 units at 1.85 (+2.55 units)
Cerrone over Barboza. 3 units at 2.00 (+3.00 units)
Lewis/Ortiz Parlay. 3 units at 1.92 (+2.76 units)

Lost Bets:

Tavares/Magalhaes Parlay. 3 units at 2.34 (-3.00 units)

Event Record: 4-1
Event Profit: +9.51 units

UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne Full Predictions and Bets

We’re less than 24 hours away from UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne which will be live from the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida tomorrow night, Saturday, April 19. The fight card begins on Fight Pass at 3:30 pm ET on Fight Pass with the televised prelims at 5pm ET on Fox Sports 1 and Sportsnet 360 and the main prelims live at 8pm ET on Fox and Sportsnet 360. Since it’s Easter weekend, the family stuff has been taking much of our time and our write ups will be relatively brief, but our early predictions and bets had more detailed break downs and they were posted last night. In this post, we’ll just be going over a couple of our parlay bets for this solid UFC on Fox card. We’ll be looking to cap off a huge week where we went 5-0 for +14.97 units at the TUF Nations Finale on Wednesday night. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.

First up, we see Miesha Tate defeating Liz Carmouche in the co-main event women’s bantamweight contest. Two of Tate’s recent losses have come to the champ, Ronda Rousey and the other one was a third round TKO loss to Cat Zingano in a fight she probably had on the score cards. Carmouche seems to lose to all the top women as she was unable to defeat Marloes Coenen, Sarah Kaufman, Ronda Rousey and Alexis Davis, all within the past 3 years and we don’t expect her to be able to turn the tide against Miesha Tate. Parlayed with Tate will be Jordan Mein who will be introducing Hernani Perpetuo to UFC competition. The UFC vet Mein should have no problem disposing of the newcomer, Perpetuo which is why we decided to add him to this parlay. We placed a 3 unit parlay bet on Tate and Mein at 1.85.

Our last bet of the card will be another parlay where we see a couple pretty likely outcomes. Firstly, Dustin Ortiz welcomes Ray Borg to the UFC after a close split decision loss to former number 1 contender John Moraga. Ortiz should be a serious step up for Borg while Borg will be a serious step down for Ortiz, so we expect Ortiz to have no problems tomorrow night. Parlayed with Ortiz will be UFC newcomer Derrick Lewis. Lewis is another guy we expect to have a relatively easy path to victory on Saturday night. We placed a 3 unit parlay bet on Ortiz and Lewis at 1.92.

That’s it for our UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne picks! We’ll be back early next week with our full UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira predictions and bets.

Bets

Werdum over Browne. 3 units at 2.40
Cerrone over Barboza. 3 units at 2.00
Tavares/Magalhaes Parlay. 3 units at 2.34
Tate/Mein Parlay. 3 units at 1.85
Lewis/Ortiz Parlay. 3 units at 1.92

UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne Early Predictions and Bets

We’re just two days away from UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne so we’re here with our early picks and bets. Today’s post will just be a couple straight bets, but we’ll be back tomorrow with a full slate of bets and parlays. The fights get under way at 3:30 pm Saturday, with the Fight Pass prelims leading into the televised prelims at 5:00 pm and the main card at 8:00 pm. It is a relatively big card (especially when compared with Fight Night Abu Dhabi which had just 8 fights), with 13 total fights and plenty of good opportunities to lay down your money. We’re coming off a huge night Wednesday where we laid down 5, 3 unit bets, all of which cashed for a total profit of almost 15 units. Realistically, we aren’t likely to have two perfect events in a row, but we’ll still be hoping to get a nice little profit for our followers Saturday night! Remember, you can always check our detailed track record to see how we’ve been doing here.

For the third UFC event in a row, we are picking an upset in the main event. It worked out great with Tim Kennedy at the TUF Nations Finale, but not so great with Nogueira at UFC Fight Night 39, we’re hoping it works out well again with Fabricio Werdum. Werdum will collide with the powerful Travis Browne in an attempt to be the number one contender for the UFC Heavyweight World Title, currently held by Cain Velasquez. Werdum’s only 2 losses in the last 6 years have come to Alistair Overeem and Junior Dos Santos, two guys most people would consider elite strikers, and the fight with Overeem wasn’t even a blow out on the feet. He holds wins over several top UFC heavyweights including Overeem (in their first fight), Roy Nelson and Antonio Silva. He also holds the distinction of ending Fedor’s 26 fight winning streak in the Strikeforce Grand Prix in 2010. Browne also holds some huge wins in his career, taking TKO victories over Josh Barnett, Overeem, Gabriel Gonzaga and Stefan Struve. In the win over Overeem though, Browne was seconds from going out, in fact some refs could have stopped that fight. Browne was lucky Overeem wore himself out trying to finish and gave Browne an opporunity to land the front kick that eventually ended the fight. His other two recent TKO’s have been elbows to the side of the head when his opponents attempt takedowns. You can bet Fabricio Werdum will have game planned against that and will avoid attempting takedowns against the cage in such a way that his head is exposed to Browne’s downward elbows. The big question mark with Browne is his ground game as he hasn’t really seen the ground in most of his fights. Our prediction for this fight is that Werdum hangs in there on the feet. He likely won’t be able to TKO Browne, but he should be able to get close to a 50/50 fight. If Werdum is able to get the fight to the ground though, we expect him to capitalize and get the submission. That’s why we Tweeted out a bet when odds were released of 3 units on Werdum at 2.40. Since then, the line on Werdum has climbed to 2.80 and we think it’s a no brainer to place a bet at that price.

Our next pick is for the second fight of the main card in the lightweight division between Donald Cerrone and Edson Barboza. Cerrone is one of the better strikers in the lightweight division, but has also recently shown some great fight IQ in keeping fights safe by getting them on the ground when fighting guys where his best advantage is on the ground. For example, vs former high level karate competitor KJ Noons, Cerrone was able to land 4 takedowns and take a unanimous decision victory. In Cerrone’s last 14 fights, he has just 3 losses, and they were all to very high level fighters in Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Rafael Dos Anjos. His opponent, Edson Barboza is primarily a striker, earning TKO’s in 3 of his 8 UFC fights. The main concern with Barboza is his chin. His striking defense at times leaves something to be desired and both Jamie Varner and Danny Castillo were able to capitalize. We contend that Cerrone is a better striker than both those guys and should be able to find a home for a power strike that puts Barboza’s lights out at some point during their 15 minute fight. Our model agrees, heavily favouring Cerrone in this match-up. We placed a 3 unit bet on Cerrone at 2.00.

Our final bet for this post goes against a guy we’ve faded before in Yoel Romero. We have Brad Tavares as the first leg in a parlay mainly because we see Romero as a hugely overrated fighter. Sure, he has plenty of wins by TKO, but they aren’t as clear cut as many people think. Derek Brunson, who was 2-2 (and not against great competition) in his last 4 when fighting Romero had a dominant first and second round, using his wrestling to take down and control the action. Unfortunately for Brunson, Romero found his second wind in the third round, as he also did against Ronny Markes and was able to put Brunson away. We fully expect the decision machine, Tavares, to be able to avoid the power strikes of Romero in order to earn a unanimous decision victory. Tavares, at the young age of 26 appears to be improving in each outing while the 35 year old Romero brings the same powerful striking and questionable cardio to every fight.

Parlayed with Tavares will be Caiao Magalhaes. Magalhaes will be welcoming new UFC middleweight Luke Zachrich to the octagon and we don’t really expect it to be a close fight. Magalhaes took a surprising win over Nick Ring in late 2013 at UFC Fight Night Australia and Zachrich should be a significant step down. Zachrich holds an impressive career record of 13-2, but when you look closer, his record against opponents with above 500 averages is just 4-2. 4-2 against guys outside of the UFC with over 500 win percentages, that’s not necessarily a particularly skilled crowd and definitely not a UFC calibre crowd. Magalhaes should cruise to victory Saturday night just based on records, but the film on Zachrich confirms Magalhaes should have an easy night. We placed a 3 unit bet on the Magalhaes/Tavares parlay at 2.34. By the way, just finished listening to Warren Buffet’s Management Secrets and it’s an awesome listen. A bit off topic here, but the overlap between people betting on MMA and putting money in the stock market is likely more than we think.

Following UFC on Fox 11 will be UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira which goes down Saturday, April 26. Don’t buy into the Joe Rogan hype though, Jones is going to kill Teixeira. On the small chance that Teixeira gets a fluke knockout, our early predictions and bets have you covered as the lone bet we placed on that fight was for it to be under 3.5 rounds long. Stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for all our latest picks, bets and predictions.

Bets

Werdum over Browne. 3 units at 2.40
Cerrone over Barboza. 3 units at 2.00
Tavares/Magalhaes Parlay. 3 units at 2.34

TUF Nations Finale: Bisping vs Kennedy Results and Betting Recap

TUF Nations Finale: Bisping vs Kennedy went down tonight from Quebec City, Quebec and it was an awesome night for the fight predictor. We went perfect in our bets at 5-0 for a profit of 14.97 units in what may be our best night in our 2 year history! We’ll be looking to build on our profit this weekend with UFC on Fox 11: Browne vs Werdum. Our picks will be out in the next couple days so be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest.

Our final bet of the night was on the main event middleweight tilt between Michael Bisping and Tim Kennedy. Our bet was 3 units at 2.67 on Tim Kennedy. By the time the fight started, Kennedy had climbed as high as 2.85 on some sports books. Round 1 saw Kennedy get an early takedown and maintain top position with little action for almost 5 minutes. Round 2 saw Bisping getting the better of the exchanges on the feet and Kennedy unable to get any takedowns. Round 3 saw Kennedy get a takedown mid-round after losing the first half of the round on the feet. Round 4 saw the fighters standing for the duration again, but the edge for Bisping wasn’t as distinct. Round 5 saw Kennedy in top control for the first half, with a stand up mid round and pretty even striking for the second half. We scored the fight 47-46 for Kennedy. The judges saw it 49-46×2 and 50-45 for Tim Kennedy. We profit 5.01 units.

Our fourth bet of the night was on the coaches battle between Patrick Cote and Kyle Noke. The bet was 3 units at 1.95, but by fight time, the line on Cote had climbed as high as 2.88 on some sports books. Throughout the fight, Noke seemed to get the better of Cote when they were at long range, but at middle and close range, Cote had the advantage. In the grappling game, Cote finished all 3 rounds on top so it looked like it would be an easy decision for the judges. The judges got it right scoring it 29-28×2 and 30-27 for Patrick Cote. We profit 2.85 units.

Our third bet of the night was on the TUF Nations middleweight final between Sheldon Westcott and Elias Theodorou. The bet was 3 units on Elias at 1.74. Westcott openend the fight strong, taking the back of Theodorou, but other than that, it was all Theodorou. Theodorou was dominant on the feet and had Westcott in compromising positions on the ground several times before finishing it late in the second. We profit 2.22 units.

The first leg of our parlay for the card was Mitch Gagnon to defeat Tim Gorman. The other two legs of the parlay were Dustin Poirier and Ryan Jimmo and the bet was 3 units at 1.80. It wasn’t a clear as we’d have liked to see, but Gagnon got the job done in all 3 rounds. He landed far more offense than Gorman including a couple takedowns in the third round. Gorman’s only control in the fight were the moments where he was holding Gagnon against the fence going for single leg takedowns. The judges got it right in scoring the fight 30-27×3 for Mitch Gagnon and the first leg of our parlay is good. The second leg of our parlay was Ryan Jimmo to defeat a debuting Sean O’Connell in the light heavyweight division. By fight time, the line on Jimmo had fallen all the way to 1.17. In what was a rather close first round that saw O’Connell pressing Jimmo against the cage, Jimmo was eventually able to get a knock out immediately after the two were split apart due to inactivity against the fence. It was all up to Dustin Poirier to make good on our parlay. Round 1 was pretty scary as Poirier got clipped a couple times, but managed to survive and we actually gave him the edge. Round 2 was much better as Poirier landed a sick upper cut that hurt Corassani and Poirier was able to capitalize, finishing the fight with strikes. Our good parlay sees us profit 2.40 units.

Our first bet of the night was George Roop to defeat Dustin Kimura. The bet was 3 units at 1.83. Unfortunately, we missed the entirety of the fight, but judging by Twitter’s reaction, it seemed like Roop layed and prayed for 3 rounds and was in a good position heading to the decision. The judges scored it 29-28, 30-27 and 29-26 in favour of Roop and we profit 2.49 units.

Good Bets:

Kennedy over Bisping. 3 units at 2.67. (+5.01 units)
Cote over Noke. 3 units at 1.95. (+2.85 units)
Theodorou over Westcott. 3 units at 1.74. (+2.22 units)
Gagnon/Jimmo/Poirier Parlay. 3 units at 1.80. (+2.40 units)
Roop over Kimura. 3 units at 1.83. (+2.49 units)

Event Record: 5-0
Event Profit: +14.97 units

TUF Nations: Bisping vs Kennedy Full Predictions and Bets

We’re less than 24 hours away from the TUF Nations Finale which will feature Bisping and Kennedy in the main event as well as the TUF Nations finals which take place in the middleweight and welterweight divisions. The fighters have all weighed in and everyone was on weight so there’s no threat of fights being removed like happened last weekend at UFC Fight Night 39: Nelson vs Nogueira. The fight card has a ton of fights with 13 total and will begin with 4 fights on Fight Pass at 3:15 pm ET. The televised prelims kick off at 5 PM ET and the main card will be live at 7 PM ET on Sportsnet 360 and Fox Sports 1. The event goes down at the former home of the Quebec Nordiques in Quebec City, Quebec, Canada. We already released our early predictions and bets where our lone bet was Tim Kennedy to defeat Michael Bisping at 2.67. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.

We touched on the co-main event between Kyle Noke and Patrick Cote in our early predictions and bets post, but since then, the line on Cote has climbed considerably. When it reached 1.95, we felt the value was high enough to make a move so we bet 3 units on Cote at 1.95 as Tweeted a few days ago.

In the middleweight final of TUF Nations, the 8-0 Elias Theodorou will be doing battle with the 8-1-1 Sheldon Westcott. In what may or may not be a good indication of who is likely to win, Westcott’s last 5 opponents have a combined record of 77-58 (57%) while Theodorou’s last 5 opponents have a combined record of 34-20 (63%). By itself, these numbers are close enough that they probably don’t mean much. What is concerning though is that Westcott holds a split draw against the 27-21 Thomas Denny. Again, these things don’t mean too much on their own, but combine them with the fact that Theodorou appeared to be the better of the two in his TUF fights, and we see value in Elias at 1.74. We placed a 3 unit bet on Elias Theodorou at 1.74.

In 3 picks that basically everyone has, we have Poirier over Corassani, Jimmo over O’Connell and Gagnon over Gorman. While the lines on all 3 are relatively steep, we feel a parlay will cash the vast majority of the time so we combined the 3 for close to even money. We placed a 3 unit parlay bet on Poirier, Jimmo and Gagnon at 1.80.

Our final bet of the night is a guy we’ve had big success with before. We bet George Roop to defeat Brian Bowles when he was around 3.50. It turned out to be a very successful bet for us as Roop came through with a huge second round TKO. Roop enters tomorrow nights TUF Nations Finale fight off a loss to Francisco Rivera by TKO. Luckily for Roop’s chin, Kimura is likely not a guy who can earn a TKO over him with just 2 career TKOs, both of which came outside of the UFC. Overall, Kimura has really not looked good in the UFC, getting a submission win over Chico Camus late in a fight that Camus had been dominating and getting his other win via sub over Jon Delos Reyes (who?!?). While we don’t think Roop is going to be a contender at any point in his career, he has shown decent striking and should be able to easily take care of Kimura. In addition, Roop is a heavy favourite in our mathematical model. We placed a 3 unit bet on Roop at 1.83.

That’s it for our betting picks. In unit terms, this will be one of our biggest betting cards ever and we’re hoping it will result in big time profit numbers! Next up, there’s only a few days remaining until UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne which features a heavyweight number one contender fight in the main event between Travis Browne and Fabricio Werdum as well as a potential number one women’s contender match in the co-main event between Miesha Tate and Liz Carmouche. Stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for the latest! A cool book to take a look at if you want to be serious about your sports betting is Changing the Game by William Hall III. It’s just $9 on Kindle and well worth the price with a wealth of strategies for earning money betting on sports.

Bets

Kennedy over Bisping. 3 units at 2.67
Cote over Noke. 3 units at 1.95
Theodorou over Westcott. 3 units at 1.74
Poirier/Jimmo/Gagnon Parlay. 3 units at 1.80
Roop over Kimura. 3 units at 1.83

UFC Fight Night 39: Nogueira vs Nelson Results and Betting Recap

Our final bet of the night was on Antonio Nogueira to defeat Roy Nelson in the main event. The bet was 3 units at 2.55. At times during the week, the odds were as low at 2.15, but they climbed back up to around 2.50 by fight time. Nelson connected with the right hand several times in the first round and had a clear striking advantage. Unfortunately, Nogueira was wobbly and Nelson capitalized taking the win by KO with a huge right hand. We lose our 3 unit bet.

Our third bet of the night was on John Howard to defeat Ryan LaFlare. This bet was more of a value play as we felt the line had got out of hand. We had 1 unit on Howard at 4.00, but by fight time the line had reached 4.55. Round 1 saw LaFlare get a takedown, holding Howard down for about half the round. When they eventually stood up, LaFlare continued to be the more effective martial artist on the feet. The second round saw Howard land a strike that wobbled LaFlare, allowing him to get a takedown and take the top position. In the middle of the second round, Howard took a direct shot to the groin that saw him take the full 5 minutes to recover. He didn’t seem to be the same fighter for the rest of the fight as he spent almost the entire third round on his back. We lose 1 unit.

Our second bet of the night was on the first heavyweight bout between Daniel Omielanczuk and Jared Rosholt to be under 1.5 rounds. The bet was 2 units at 2.75. As many people anticipated and as we were hoping wouldn’t happen, Rosholt basically laid on top of Omielanczuk for a round and a half meaning our bet was lost. We lost 2 units.

Since our bet on Yahya got cancelled, we were left with just Thales Leites over Trevor Smith, 3 units at 1.25. This wasn’t necesarily a line we’d take by choice, but it wasn’t a bet we were uncomfortable holding either as we expected Leites to cruise to victory. Leites made good on our prediction as he surprisingly chose to keep the fight standing and was able to finish Trevor Smith early in the first. We profit 0.75 units.

Opening the card was the first leg of our parlay. We had Rani Yahya to defeat Johnny Bedford. By fight time, Yahya hadn’t dropped too much as the line was still around 1.61. Unfortunately within the first minute, there were 2 accidental head butts. The second clash of heads saw both guys get rocked. Bedford was able to capitalize, landing a couple undefended strikes. The decision was announced as a no contest due to accidental headbutt which means the Yahya leg of our parlay gets cancelled. We were left with 3 units on Thales Leites at 1.25.

Good Bets:

Leites over Smith. 3 units at 1.25 (+0.75 units)

Lost Bets:

Nogueira over Nelson. 3 units at 2.55 to 1 (-3.00 units)
Howard over LaFlare. 1 unit at 4.00 (-1.00 units)
Under 1.5 – Omielanczuk/Rosholt. 2 units at 2.75 to 1 (-2.00 units)

Event Record: 1-3
Event Profit: -5.25 units

Bellator 116: Ivanov vs Johnson Quick Predictions and Bets

Bellator 116 goes down tomorrow night on Spike TV. The main card starts at 9 pm ET and features the heavyweight tournament semi-finals. We just have one planned bet for the card, but we’ll give you a full run down of all the fights with posted odds!

Ivanov over Johnson: As long as he doesn’t get clipped early, Ivanov should cruise to a decision win. We expect him to spend much of the fight in top position. No bet on this one though as Lavar’s power is worrying.

Volkov over Mo: Volkov should be better in all areas. Unlikely to get the TKO, but should cruise to a decision. Volkov is first leg in our parlay.

Coy over McDonough: Will be watching the odds for this one closely though. We feel it’s much closer than the odds indicate. If McDonough gets up to 3.00 or higher, we’ll likely pull the trigger.

Matyushenko over Beltran: Expecting Matyushenko to use his grappling to control the majority of the fight. The fact that he’s retiring post-fight makes this basically unbettable at current odds.

Halsey over Pacheco: Odds on this one kind of crazy too. Not bettable, but see Halsey winning the majority of the time.

Taimanglo over Emerson: Pick ‘em fight like the odds indicate. No bet from us.

Keslar over Parisyan: At 31 and with 33 career fights (5 of which resulted in him being TKO’d), we see Parisyan nearing the end of his career. Keslar is 2 years older, but should be the fresher of the two. We added Keslar to our parlay with Volkov.

Bets

Volkov/Keslar Parlay 2 units at 1.79.

UFC Fight Night 39: Nogueira vs Nelson Full Predictions and Bets

UFC Fight Night 39: Nelson vs Big Nog is just a few days away now and we’re back with our full predictions and bets for the event which features a couple interesting match-ups to go over. Our early predictions and bets were already posted so we’ll be covering primarily preliminary card bouts in this post. In terms of our track record, after going 0-1 for -2.00 units at Bellator 115, we’re still up over 38 units overall for an ROI of 23.90%. To be honest, we’re not particularly enthusiastic about this card for betting so we’ve kept our bets a bit lighter than some other recent UFC cards. If you haven’t picked up your copy of Fightnomics by Reed Kuhn, it’s a must read for any UFC fan, especially if you’re thinking about laying down some money on the fights.

We mentioned in our early picks and bets that we think that Ryan LaFlare is a deserving favourite to defeat John Howard. We also said that we think the line on LaFlare was starting to get a bit crazy. Since then, the line on Howard has climbed even higher, and we’ve decided it’s time to put down a small bet on the dog. We placed a 1 unit bet on Howard at 4.00.

Main eventing the prelims will be Jared Rosholt and Daniel Omielanczuk. Rosholt is actually a guy we bet against in his UFC debut against Walt Harris and the bet was almost good as Harris was able to rock Rosholt early, but was unable to finish and was basically pinned down for the remaining 2.5 rounds. There is a possibility Rosholt does the same against Omielanczuk, but we think the odds of that happening are well under 64% (the break even point of a bet on the under 1.5 rounds). Firstly, there’s the possibility of Rosholt winning via a ground and pound stoppage or submission. 66% of his wins have come inside the distance and 100% of his losses (just 1 observation though). Secondly, there’s the possibility of an Omielanczuk stoppage which 69% of his wins have come by. Based on this, we placed a 2 unit bet on the under 1.5 rounds at 2.75 which we Tweeted out last week.

Thales Leites to defeat Trevor Smith will be the first leg of our lone parlay bet on the card. Smith went 2-1 in Strikeforce and has so far gone 1-2 in the UFC while Leites has gone 2-0 since returning to the UFC after being cut in 2009, more because of his boring style than his skill set. Realistically, Leites should be in little danger in this fight. He has fought and had success against opponents who are all around better than Smith so there should be no issues. We expect him to use his “boring” smothering style to control Smith and he could potentially earn a first or second round submission. For this reason, even at 1.25, we think there’s value in adding Leites to a parlay.

Partnered with Leites in the parlay will be Rani Yahya to defeat Johnny Bedford. Firstly, Yahya is favoured by our math model which is always a big part of our picks. Secondly, his career record is relatively unimpressive at 19-8, but it is important to note that he only really loses to high level competitors. It remains to be seen whether his last opponent (and loss), Tom Niinimaki ends up being an elite competitor, but it was a pretty close split decision and we would contend that Niinimaki is better than Bedford. Bedford is still looking for a big name to put in the win column after going 2-1 in the UFC so far with his wins coming over middle of the road bantamweights. Also of note is the fact that Bedford hasn’t fought in almost a year with his last fight being a submission loss to Bryan Caraway so there could be some ring rust. For these reasons, and the fact that Yahya is above 1.50, we decided to add Yahya to the parlay with Leites. We placed a 3 unit parlay bet on Leites and Yahya at 1.99.

In our final model pick of the night, we have Andrew Craig to defeat Chris Camozzi. Camozzi is a long time UFC vet, going 6-4 for the promotion with one win for Shark Fights after he was cut in 2011 and then rehired. Craig is 3-2 in his UFC career, but should be the much fresher fighter with just 11 career fights to Camozzi’s 26. We expect Craig to follow a similar game plan to his fight against Chris Leben where he landed 2 takedowns and spent a bunch of time in top position including passing Leben’s guard 4 times. The biggest reason we see value in Craig is the fact that Camozzi has never landed a UFC takedown in 14 attempts (thanks Reed). He may have a slight advantage on the feet, but knowing that he has never been able to change a fight by landing a takedown is important from not only a betting perspective, but a gameplanning perspective. Craig should be free to execute his game plan on the feet and attempt takedowns as he pleases without worry of being taken down. Knowing this, we placed a 3 unit bet on Craig at 2.25.

It will be a busy week for The Fight Predictor as we look to build on our impressive track record with over 38 units in profit already and more to come! Be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Bets

Nogueira over Nelson. 3 units at 2.55
Howard over LaFlare. 1 unit at 4.00
Under 1.5 Rounds Omielanczuk/Rosholt. 2 units at 2.75
Leites/Yahya Parlay. 3 units at 1.99
Craig over Camozzi. 3 units at 2.25

Bellator 115: Minakov vs Kongo Quick Predictions and Bets

We’re now just 2 days away from Bellator 115 which features Vitaly Minakov defending his world heavyweight title against UFC crossover Cheick Kongo. We’ll have a couple bets for this card, but honestly the value isn’t huge so we don’t recommend betting the farm! By the way, just finished listening to Warren Buffet’s Management Secrets and it’s an awesome listen. A bit off topic here, but the overlap between people betting on MMA and putting money in the stock market is likely more than we think.

Kongo over Minakov. The pick is not a hugely confident one, but Kong is a step up in competition for Minakov. The major concern is Kongo’s chin, but its definitely possible Kongo grinds out a decision. 2 unit bet on Kongo at 3.00.

Koreshkov over Oropeza. Expecting Koreshkov to cruise to a decision. No bet on this one.

Parlo over Cisneros. Cisneros is 1-2 in KOTC in his last 3. Parlo is 2-1 in Bellator fighting tough opponents. Parlo should win handily. No bet.

Cramer over Kimball. Way closer fight than the odds indicate. 1.5 unit bet on Kimball at 3.14.

Bets

Kongo over Minakov. 2 units at 3.00
Kimball over Cramer. 1.5 units at 3.14

TUF Nations Finale: Bisping vs Kennedy Early Predictions and Bets

We’re about 2 weeks away from the TUF Nations Finale featuring middleweights Michael Bisping and Tim Kennedy in the main event. With just one card (UFC Fight Night 39, our main card picks are here) in the mean time, the main and co-main event odds have been released and we’re here with our first couple predictions and bets. As a matter of disclosure, we haven’t watched any episodes of TUF Nations, nor do we plan to before the fight card so we will be hesitant to place any bets on the TUF finalists. We are currently up over 40 units since UFC 168 for a return of over 25%. Had you created an account with $1000 and tailed our bets, you would now have over $1800. By the way, just finished listening to Warren Buffet’s Management Secrets and it’s an awesome listen. A bit off topic here, but the overlap between people betting on MMA and putting money in the stock market is likely more than we think.

As stated above, the main event of this TUF Finale features top 10 middleweights Michael Bisping and Tim Kennedy. Both men are likely 2 wins away from a title shot and the winner should get a top 5 opponent in a number 1 contender fight. Bisping has been fighting in the UFC since winning The Ultimate Fighter 3 back in June, 2006 and sports an overall record of 24-5 and a UFC record of 14-5. He has been around the top of the UFC’s middleweight division for years, but always seems to lose when he has the chance to become the number one contender. He’s just one of those guys who struggles to beat the elite of the division. At 35 years old and with 29 career fights, if Bisping hopes to win a title, it will have to be in the next year or two. At 34 years old and with 21 career fights, Kennedy is in a pretty similar situation to “The Count”. He also takes care of business against lower level competition, but struggles against elite fighters. His only recent losses are to Luke Rockhold and Jacare Souza who are the number 4 and 6 overall UFC middleweights. In terms of recent performances, Kennedy is riding a 3-0 streak while Bisping is 2-2 in his last 4. It likely speaks more to the fact that Bisping has been fighting really high level competition while Kennedy has had some easy recent fights more than the skill level of either fighter though. We expect Kennedy’s to outgrapple Bisping to a close decision as our model has him as a slight favourite. As Tweeted out, we placed a 3 unit bet on Kennedy at 2.67.

The other fight with early odds released on this card is the coaches battle between Kyle Noke and Patrick Cote. Both fighters’ best days are likely behind them with Cote losing to Cung Le at UFC 148, defeating Alessio Sakara (via questionable DQ, Sakara should have been able to easily TKO Cote, but struck the back of Cote’s head) and defeating Bobby Voelker at UFC 158 while Noke has a first round submission loss to Ed Herman, a decision loss to Andrew Craig and his latest win in September, 2012 over Charlie Brenneman, who was then cut from the UFC, but has recently returned with a loss. Our model gives Cote the edge, but at less than 1.67, there isn’t a lot of value in placing a bet. Both men are heading towards the end of their careers at 34 years of age and with 27 professional fights. They have also shown throughout their careers that they have a decent level of power, but also have decent chins. It’s always a worry as fighters age that their chins will start to deteriorate and that is the major reason we don’t want to bet Cote. The other possible bet in this fight is the under 2.5 rounds, but at 2.10, we just don’t see a lot of value in laying down our money. We will hold off on betting this fight for now and will likely not include either fighter in a parlay as the fights approach.

Mid-April will be an incredibly busy time for the UFC with 4 fight cards in 15 days, and we will have all of them covered with the best bets, predictions and tips. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.

Bets

Kennedy over Bisping. 3 units at 2.67 to 1