UFC on Fox 12: Lawler vs Brown Main Card Predictions and Bets

This Saturday the UFC’s putting on a solid fight card topped by a number one contender fight for the UFC welterweight title between Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown. The fights will be live from the SAP Center in San Jose, California, with the Fight Pass prelims at 4:15 pm ET, the televised prelims at 6pm ET and the main card live at 8pm ET. We’re here to give you our main card predictions and bets. We’re hoping the event will allow us to get back to profit in July which started pretty horribly with 2 straight losses, but has turned around a bit with the last 3 events. Overall, we’re still up 62.01 units for an average return of 17.87%. Our UFC record is even better with an average return of 20.50% and a total return of 63.55 units. Remember that game, “Watch Dogs” that seemed to be promoted on every UFC broadcast? Well it’s now out and looks legit, you can pick up your copy on Amazon.

In the main event, the welterweight number one contendership is on the line as Matt Brown takes on Robbie Lawler. At 33 years old, Brown has had a late career resurgence winning 7 straight after going just 14-11 in his first 25 fights. He has always proven to have a good chin, having yet to be knocked out in his 30 career fights, but has also shown a suscepitbility to being submitted with 9 of his 11 losses coming due to tapout. Lawler’s return to the UFC from Strikeforce in 2013 also seems to have sparked a resurgence for him as he’s 4-1 since returning with his only loss coming to division champ, Johny Hendricks. In terms of a prediction in this one, we expect Lawler to be the more effective striker and expect he’ll go to Brown’s body with kicks early and often. At the current price of 1.29 (-343), we don’t see much value in Lawler. The line on Brown will be one to watch on fight day as we’ve seen in recent history that a lot of money tends to come in on the favourites as the fights approach. If the line on Brown reaches 5.00 (+400) or higher, we’ll likely throw down a unit as a value play. We do feel like there is a good possibility of this fight ending early so we bet 1.5 units on the under 2.5 rounds line at 1.71 (-140) at Pinnacle.

As for the main card, the only other play we like as of now is Clay Guida to defeat Dennis Bermudez. It’s kind of surprising that Guida even opened as the underdog considering he is ranked ahead of Bermudez in the UFC’s rankings (I know, I know, these rankings are not the greatest measure of a fighter’s skill and don’t consider styles, but it’s still surprising). Guida is 32 years old and has been fighting in the UFC seemingly forever. His fights generally tend to be pretty exciting and he has pretty decent all around skill. Since dropping down to featherweight from lightweight, Guida is 2-1 with his only loss coming to division number 1 contender, Chad Mendes. His opponent, Dennis Bermudez is 27 years old and has to be one of the only UFC fighters on the roster to enter the UFC on a two fight losing streak. He extended that losing streak to 3 by losing The Ultimate Fighter 14 to Diego Brandao, but has since then looked great, winning 6 straight. Clay Guida is likely the toughest opponent Bermudez has ever faced so it will be interesting to see how he handles the step up. Win or lose, we feel the value is on the dog in this fight which is why we bet 2 units on Guida at 2.45 (+145) at Sportsbook.ag.

In terms of main card betting tips for UFC on Fox 12, this article lists our only 2. We will be back later in the week when the main card odds are released with our full predictions and bets. Remember to hit us up on Twitter and Facebook with any questions or comments!


Under 1.5 Rounds – Lawler/Brown. 1.5 units at 1.71 (-140) at Pinnacle
Guida over Bermudez. 2 units at 2.45 (+145) at Sportsbook.ag

UFC Fight Night 46: McGregor vs Brandao Results and Betting Recap

It was another decent day of MMA betting for The Fight Predictor. UFC Fight Night 46: McGregor vs Brandao saw us go 3-2 on our bets for a profit of 2.74 units. As always we’ll never complain about a profit and this brings us closer to being even on the month of July. We’ll still need a big performance at UFC on Fox 12: Lawler vs Brown to be break even, but we’re much closer at this point. Remember to stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!

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UFC Fight Night 46: McGregor vs Brandao Full Predictions and Bets

UFC Fight Night 46: McGregor vs Brandao goes down this Saturday night from Dublin, Ireland. It’s not the worst card for betting, but it’s also not the greatest either (oh, you want a bad card for betting eh? How bout UFC Fight Night 48 from Macau). The bad thing about having UFC fight cards all the time is that it’s kind of draining from a preparation stand point for those of us who provide betting tips. The good thing is losses don’t have time to stew. For example, our awful performance to start July still matters in the grand scheme of things, but we feel much better after Wednesday’s 3.42 unit profit. Be sure to take a look at our track record which is now broken down into UFC and Bellator/small organizations and shows our average ROI is over 20% on UFC cards since we began tracking at UFC 168. Remember that game, “Watch Dogs” that seemed to be promoted on every UFC broadcast? Well it’s now out and looks legit, you can pick up your copy on Amazon.

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UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs Miller Results and Betting Recap

It was a decent night for the fight predictor. We ended up being above 500 with our bets and when most of your bets are at plus money, that tends to lead to a decent performance. Overall, we went 3-2 for +3.42 units. The profit helps to make up for what has so far been an absolutely terrible month of July.

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UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs Miller Full Predictions and Bets

UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs Miller goes down tomorrow night and we’re back with our full predictions and bets for the event. You can find the majority of our bets in our main card predictions and bets post which we have had up for about a week now. It’s been a busy week so far as all weeks tend to be when there are 2 UFC events. Recent results have not been as good as we would have liked with an 0-fer at UFC 175 followed up by a slight loss at the TUF 19 Finale. Realistically, we still have an overall ROI of around 16% which is basically the best you’ll find on the net, especially when only looking at free picks. One good thing about losses though is that they force you to adjust your betting patterns and that’s exactly what we’ve done. So you can trust going forward that we are only playing the spots we think have the most value on each and every card. If you’re looking to adjust some of your own betting patterns, we think Sports Betting to Win by Steve Ward is at least worth a quick browse through.

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