UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva II Full Predictions and Bets

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UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva II is live this Saturday from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. We already posted our early picks for the event here. Now that the full odds are out for the card, we are ready to give you our full picks. The main card begins at 10pm ET on PPV, with the FX prelims beginning at 8pm ET and the Facebook prelims beginning at 6:30pm ET.

As mentioned in our last two articles, we did not plan to bet on the main event at current odds. However, we found a great fight to pair Cain Velasquez up with for a 1.57 to 1, 2 team parlay. We paired Velasquez with Donald Cerrone, who will be facing KJ Noons in the opener of the main card. Cerrone’s only recent losses have come to featherweight top contender Anthony Pettis and former lightweight title challenger Nate Diaz. Noons on the other hand did not have much going for him towards the end of Strikeforce. He lost a questionable split decision to Ryan Couture as well as 3 of his other 4 fights, only being able to defeat Billy Evangelista. Realistically, Cerrone should cruise to victory in this one so we added him to the Cain Velasquez parlay since we also expect Cain to cruise to a second win over Antonio Silva. We placed a 1 unit bet on Velasquez and Cerrone to defeat Silva and Noons at 1.57 to 1.

We also discussed the Gray Maynard vs TJ Grant fight in our previous post, but because we have Maynard as a heavy favourite and his odds sit at 1.5, we have decided to place a 1 unit bet on Maynard at 1.5 to 1.

In a second parlay of the night, we have Story and Bermudez defeating Pyle and Holloway. In both these fights, our model’s confidence is slightly lower than in the Maynard/Grant fight, for example, but it is still high enough to justify this parlay at well over 2 to 1. Story’s opponent, Pyle has been on a tear of late, winning 3 in a row via TKO. His opponents over that stretch however, have been more mid-tier than top tier welterweights, while Story has been fighting in mostly the upper tier of the division. We feel that Story will be able to control the action and bring home a submission victory over Pyle. In Bermudez vs Holloway, both fighters have won their last 3 contests in the UFC. Both fighters finished one fight over that stretch. We see the 26 year old more experienced Bemrudez being able to control the 21 year old Holloway with his division 1 wrestling credentials. We placed a 1 unit bet at 2.41 to 1.

In our final pick of the night, and the lone underdog we are betting on, we have George Roop defeating a returning Brian Bowles. Firstly, it is very important to note that Bowles has not fought in 18 months due to various injuries. We feel it will be tough for Bowles to pick up where he left off, as one of the top UFC bantamweights. In Bowles’ absence, Roop has been able to go 2-2, not world beating numbers, but it does show he has stayed busy and has been able to take a couple victories. We placed a 1.5 unit bet on Roop at 3.46 to 1.

Bets

Dos Santos to finish Hunt. 1.5 units at 1.833 to 1
Teixeira over Te Huna. 1.5 units at 1.37 to 1
Maynard over Grant. 1 unit at 1.5 to 1
Roop over Bowles. 1.5 unit bet at 3.46 to 1
Velasquez and Cerrone over Silva and Noons. 1 unit bet at 1.57 to 1
Story and Bermudez over Pyle and Holloway. 1 unit bet at 2.41 to 1

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Here are the latest odds for UFC 160:


BestFightOdds.com

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Rockhold Results/Recap

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UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold went down last night in front of a boisterous 8,000 or so Brazilians in the Arena Jaragua in Brazil on Fuel TV and FX. This event was our first chance to test out our newly updated UFC prediction model. Interestingly, of the 13 fights on the card, 12 were won by Brazilian born fighters. This either indicates that the UFC intentionally gives Brazilian fighters easier fights in Brazil, or that the “home field advantage” actually has a positive affect in MMA. Comparing this with the results we have seen in our prediction model, our statistics show the opposite effect, that fighting at home actually reduces winning probability by 5%. Maybe we need a special case for Brazilians fighting in Brazil, but we will see how the next few cards in Brazil go.

In the main event, we had Luke Rockhold defeating Vitor Belfort. As many MMA analysts stated before the fight, Rockhold just had to survive the first half of the fight in order to be able to do his best against a tired Belfort. Belfort made Rockhold look bad early when he shoved Rockhold’s head into the ground following a botched takedown attempt. From that point forward, Rockhold was taunting the Brazilian a bit, but Belfort was able to land a nasty spinning roundhouse to Rockhold’s head, knocking Rockhold silly and finishing him with punches on the ground. We lost 1.5 units on this fight, our biggest bet of the card.

In two fights on this night, we decided to bet against the model because the guy we were predicting to win was only by a slight margin and the odds were great for the opponent. In the co-main event of the night, we had Chris Camozzi defeating Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. Unfortunately, Souza was able to make short work of his opponent, quickly getting the top position and earning a submission choke with his incredible jiu jitsu talent allowing him to lock in an arm triangle choke. The second fight where we chose to bet against our model was when we chose to bet on John Cholish to defeat Gleison Tibau. In that fight as well, our horse lost by submission, this time by guillotine choke in the second round. In each of these fights, we lost a half unit, thus we lost 1 unit in our speculative plays on the night.

In the lone bet we won on the night, we predicted Rafael Dos Anjos defeating Evan Dunham. The decision in this fight was not without controversy. All 3 judges scored the fight 29-28 for Dos Anjos, but it was an incredibly close fight. In our opinion, Dos Anjos took the first round for sure. He was definitely better in the stand up and even though Dunham landed a takedown, Dos Anjos was able to mitigate Dunham’s offense from the top. In the second round, we felt that Dunham turned a corner and did much better in the striking department so we gave that one to him. We also gave the third to Dunham, but we feel the case can be made that Dunham slowed a little in the third and Dos Anjos could have taken it on the score cards. Dos Anjos’s victory won us 0.588 units.

Results

Profit: -1.91 units
Return: -54%
Prediction Record: 3-1
Old Model Record: 2-2
Bet Record: 1-3

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We’ll be back later this week with our full predictions for UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva II!

UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold Full Picks

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We already posted our first 3 picks for UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold. We are back now to give you our pick in the last fight we can predict on the card, John Cholish vs Gleison Tibau. The main card action will begin at 9pm ET, live from Brazil, with the Fuel TV prelims beginning at 6 pm ET and a few fights on Facebook beginning at 4:30 pm ET.

In the last fight we can predict on the card, we have Gleison Tibau defeating John Cholish. Tibau is coming off an underwhelming split decision loss to Evan Dunham at UFC 156, while Cholish is coming off a decision loss to Danny Castillo. Our model has Tibau as a slight favourite. We decided however, to bet on the underdog, Cholish. The current line has Cholish at 2.92 to 1. In addition, our model is least accurate with lightweights and while we acknowledge that Cholish has not fought guys at the same level as the guys Tibau has been fighting, Cholish has been able to finish 7 of his 8 wins and has only lost twice in his career. Therefore, we are placing a 0.5 unit bet on Cholish at 2.92 to 1.

In addition, we have decided to place a 1 unit bet on Rafael Dos Anjos to defeat Evan Dunham at 1.588 to 1. We were on the fence before, but with the recent line movements, there is now enough value in Dos Anjos to justify placing a bet.

Bets

Rockhold over Belfort. 1.5 units at 1.87 to 1
Camozzi over Souza. 0.5 unit bet at 5.65 to 1
Dos Anjos over Dunham. 1 unit bet at 1.588 to 1
Cholish over Tibau. 0.5 units at 2.92 to 1

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Here are the latest odds for UFC on FX 8:


BestFightOdds.com

UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold Early Picks and Bets

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UFC on FX 8 featuring Vitor Belfort vs Luke Rockhold will be live on Saturday, May 18, 2013 from Brazil. The main card begins at 9pm ET on FX, with the Fuel TV prelims beginning at 6pm ET and the Facebook prelims beginning at 4:30 pm ET. Like many recent card, this fight card features some Strikeforce crossovers headlining including “Jacare” Souza and the aformentioned Rockhold in the co-main and main event respectively. We will predict both those fights in this article along with the lightweight battle between Rafael Dos Anjos and Evan Dunham. This fight card marks the debut of our new model!

In the main event, the last Strikeforce middleweight champ, Luke Rockhold, takes on the number 2 ranked middleweight in the UFC, Vitor Belfort. Both fighters have led impressive careers and have had a lot of success lately. Belfort is 8-2 in his last 10, with 6 knockouts and his only two losses coming to light heavyweight champ, Jon Jones and middleweight champ, Anderson Silva. Rockhold, on the other hand is 9-1 in his last 10 (he only has 11 career fights) and has 5 submissions and 2 knockouts over that time period, albeit against a lower level of competition than that of Belfort. From a statistical perspective, Rockhold has a 3 inch advantage in both height and reach respectively, standing 6’3″ tall. The striking stats say Rockhold throws a lot more punches, with slightly less accuracy, but also absorbs far fewer punches. Surprisingly, Belfort, who has finished 15 of his 22 victories via knockout, attempts more takedowns at 1.29 per fight than Rockhold, at 0.21 per fight. On the other hand, Rockhold is able to stop 70% of the takedowns attempted against him while Belfort stops just 50%. An element in all the stats however, is that many of Belfort’s fights end early, while his fight vs Jones went 4 rounds so that fight would have a negative affect on his fight statistics. Our model has Rockhold winning by a large margin. Therefore, we placed a 1.5 unit bet on Rockhold at 1.87 to 1.

Prior to the main event, in the co-main event, we will see Chris Camozzi fight Ronaldo “Jacara” Souza, with both fighters having just 5 weeks to prepare following the injury that forced Costa Philippou out of the match-up with Souza. Over his 10 year career, “Jacara” has been one of the top middleweights outside the UFC and many MMA fans have dreamed of seeing him have the opportunity to test himself against the best fighters in the world. Besides losses to main eventer, Luke Rockhold and other top Strikeforce middleweight, Gegard Mousasi, Ronaldo Souza has been undefeated over the last 5 years fighting the best competition outside the UFC. Affectionately known as the alligator, once Souza gets ahold of a limb, he doesn’t let go. This is evidenced by his 13 career submission victories. Camozzi, on the other hand, has won 4 straight in the UFC. He has finished 11 of 17 and is relatively well rounded with 6 wins via submission and 5 via knockout. In terms of fight stats, Camozzi has a small height and reach advantage. Camozzi throws a lot more strikes than Souza, 4.03 vs 2.16, and both land with a similar 40% accuracy. The critical distinction however, is Souza’s 3.91 takedowns per 15 minute fight vs Camozzi, who has never landed a takedown in his UFC career. It is a good possibility that Jacare lands a takedown and is able to hold Camozzi down. Our model however, only has “Jacare” as a slight favourite. We like the odds on Camozzi, so we placed a 0.5 unit bet on Camozzi at 5.65 to 1.

Wrapping up the odds that have been released so far is a fight between Rafael Dos Anjos and Evan Dunham. Our model has historically been least accurate at predicting lightweight fights. Therefore, even though we have Dos Anjos as a slight favourite, at 1.55 to 1, we have decided not to place a bet.

Bets

Rockhold over Belfort. 1.5 units at 1.87 to 1
Camozzi over Souza. 0.5 unit bet at 5.65 to 1

Other Picks

Dos Anjos over Dunham.

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UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva II Early Predictions and Bets

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UFC 160 is just over 2 weeks away, and we have already given our main event pick. The event goes down on Saturday, May 25 at 10pm ET. Now that the odds have been released for all the main card fights, we’re back to give you our predictions and show you where to put your money on this card.

Firstly, as we mentioned in our previous post, we are not placing a bet in the main event. At just 1.16 to 1, there is not a lot of value in betting on Velasquez. Even to win inside the distance, we can only get 1.25 to 1 which is way too little reward, even though our model has Velasquez as a serious favourite.

In the co-main event, heavy handed heavyweights, Mark Hunt and Junior Dos Santos square off. The fighters are opposite in terms of body structure, Hunt has been described as “like a fire hydrant,” while Dos Santos is tall and lean. They’re striking too is much different, Dos Santos throws crisp, technical strikes while Hunt strikes wildly, but both find a lot of success in the UFC’s heavyweight division. Hunt has been able to win 4 straight with 3 coming by way of TKO or KO. Prior to that, he lost 6 straight, but he was fighting the absolute best guys outside of the UFC including Alistair Overeem, Fedor Emelianenko and Josh Barnett. Dos Santos had won his first 9 UFC contests, 7 of which came by TKO or KO before losing his heavyweight championship to Cain Velasquez at UFC 155 in December, 2012. In terms of the stats, Hunt throws and absorbs more punches, but doesn’t attempt submissions and only succeeds with 53% of his takedowns (compared to 74% for Dos Santos). We feel that this fight is unlikely to go to the ground though. Our model has Dos Santos winning decisively. A straight bet only gets us 1.29 to 1, so we opted to place a 1.5 unit bet on Dos Santos to finish at 1.833 to 1.

In the fight prior to that, light heavyweights Glover Teixeira and James Te Huna will collide. Teixeira will be fighting just his fourth UFC fight, but he already holds a win over perennial contender “Rampage” Jackson. It has been almost 100 months since Teixeira has lost a fight and our model sees it as unlikely that Te Huna will be able to snap that streak. Te Huna has been able to win 4 straight, but he is more of a middle-upper tier light heavyweight, while Teixeira has been able to show he has the skills to challenge the very top guys. Since our model is over 90% accurate in light heavyweight fights and heavily favours Teixeira, we decided to place a 1.5 unit bet on Teixeira at 1.37 to 1.

To finish off the main card, our model has Gray Maynard taking his fight over TJ Grant as he looks to reclaim his top contender spot and Donald Cerrone defeating Strikeforce crossover KJ Noons. Our model is not particularly confident in the Gray Maynard victory and it is least accurate in lightweight fights so we will avoid placing a bet at the line of 1.5 being offered. With Cerrone over Noons, our model is a little more confident, but the odds are worse, so we will not be placing a bet on this fight either. We may reconsider placing this bet later on, but it will be updated in our final picks article.

Bets

Dos Santos to finish Hunt. 1.5 units at 1.833 to 1
Teixeira over Te Huna. 1.5 units at 1.37 to 1

Other Picks

Velasquez over Silva
Maynard over Grant
Cerrone over Noons

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We will have our UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold up on Friday, the 17th and we will have our final picks for UFC 160 up by Friday, May 24th.

Here are the latest odds for UFC 160:


BestFightOdds.com

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva II Main Event Prediction and Bet

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With the UFC 160 extended trailer released a couple days ago and with the fights coming up in under 3 weeks we felt there was no better time than now to preview the main event fight between heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez and top contender, Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. UFC 160 will go down on Saturday, May 25 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. As usual, the main card fights will start at 10pm ET, the prelims start at 8pm ET and the Facebook prelims start at 6:30pm ET.

UFC 160 will mark the second meeting between Velasquez and Silva. The first took place almost exactly a year prior, at UFC 146 on May 26, 2012. In an extremely bloody battle, Velasquez was able to dispose of Silva via nasty elbows and punches from top position on the ground in their first match-up. In Silva’s pre-fight interview, he mentioned that he deviated from his gameplan in going for a leg kick early in the fight and that leg kick was what allowed Velasquez to get the takedown that allowed him to eventually stop Silva. Realistically, there are a couple of important questions we are left with following the initial fight leading up to this rematch. Firstly, after being thoroughly dominated in their first match-up, is there any reason to believe that Silva can pull off the upset in this second match-up. Secondly, if our model predicts that Velasquez will win, is there any value in placing a bet at just 1.16 to 1?

Does Silva stand a chance?

Since the aforementioned prior match-up, Silva has won 2 straight, although in both fights, it seemed the gods of MMA were smiling down on him. Firstly, in October, 2012, Silva faced Travis Browne in the main event of a UFC on FX event. Luckily for Silva, Browne injured his leg early on and was unable to strike with any efficiency. Silva took advantage and was able to finish Browne with strikes before the 3 and a half minute mark of the first round. Following that, Silva faced a returning from suspension “Demolition Man” Alistair Overeem. Silva was dominated in the contest and went into the third round down 2 rounds to 0. For some unknown reason, Overeem decided to rush his opponent and paid for it with a flurry of punches that eventually knocked him unconscious. In each of these two fights, it was good fortune for Silva that helped him earn the victory, rather than any innate abilities.

Velasquez has fought just once since the two last matched up, but it was an incredible performance. Velasquez was able to dominate then champ, Junior Dos Santos in all aspects of MMA, including on the feet, for 3 full rounds. This earned him a unanimous decision victory and regained him the title he had lost at the inaugural UFC on FOX show in November, 2011. Velasquez was really able to prove he is the top heavyweight in MMA and completely deserving of being the champ.

We see Velasquez relentlessly attempting takedowns on Silva and eventually bringing “Bigfoot” to the ground. This is evidenced by Velasquez’s 6.61 average number of takedowns per 15 minute fight and his 52% takedown success rate, not the highest in the game, but an indicator that he may not succeed every time, but he will fight like a dog and continue to attempt to take his opponents down until he is able to make it happen. Velasquez also defends 88% of takedowns attempted against him which can be credited to his NCAA division 1 wrestling credentials. Silva is able to stop just 63% of takedowns attempted against him. And few of those have been against fighters with the wrestling credentials of Velasquez.

Is there any value in Velasquez?

Our new model has Valsquez as a heavy favourite in this bout. The current money line of 1.16 to 1 though, makes us hesitant to place a bet. For now, we won’t be placing a bet on the champ, but we will wait to see how the money line moves as fight time approaches as well as considering parlaying Velasquez with other fighters on the card to make the payoff a little sweeter.

Stay tuned in the next couple weeks as we bring you our picks for UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold as well as main card picks for UFC 160.

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Here are the latest odds for UFC 160:


BestFightOdds.com

Fight Predictor Model Update, May, 2013

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In terms of model accuracy, April was a decent month for The Fight Predictor. Over the 22 fights predicted, our prediction record was 13-9 and we made a profit at 3/4 events. Unfortunately, UFC on Fuel TV: Mousasi vs Latifi went terribly as we were wrong on all 4 fights and all 4 bets. We spent the rest of the month trying to scrape back the money we had lost, but came out just negative on the month. 13 out of 22 fights won puts us at an accuracy of around 60%. Our tests on historical data show we should be hitting close to 80% accuracy. Therefore, since we have added significant amounts of data since our last model update (Prior to UFC 157 in February) we decided it’s time for another update.

One thing that we felt was important to consider is the differences between weight classes. For example, we have seen that takedown accuracy is an extremely important variable in determining who is going to win a fight. By splitting it up into weight classes and holding all other variables constant, our results show that in heavier weight classes (above lightweight), each 1% increase in takedown accuracy increases a fighters chance of winning by 0.1%. In the lighter weight classes, each 1% increase in takedown accuracy increases a fighters chance of winning by 0.4%. Our analysis shows other differences between the lighter and heavier weight classes as well as specific relationships in certain weight classes. For example, both heavyweight and middleweight have unique height explanatory variables.

Another couple variables that have become significant in this model, but weren’t before are “is the fighter a southpaw?” and “is the fighter fighting in their home country?” What we see from these variables is that a left handed fighter fighting a right handed fighter is 5% more likely to win. Fighting in your home country, on the other hand, actually makes a fighter 8% less likely to win. This is likely due to the complacency that comes with being around friends and family. Frank Mir spoke before his fight vs Daniel Cormier about how leaving home really allowed to train to what he felt was his maximum potential.

We tested our model by going back in time and removing observations. Then we recalculate the model to see whether its predictions are accurate to what actually happened in the fight. Over 10,000 observations, here is our output:

Total Correctness: 78.71%

Heavyweight: 85%
Light-Heavyweight: 94%
Middleweight: 83%
Welterweight: 76%
Lightweight: 60%
Featherweight: 84%
Bantamweight: 76%
Flyweight: 100%

This can be compared to our calculations in our article on parlays back in February. It is worth noting however, that even though our accuracy dropped slightly overall, the additional fights in our data should help with our future accuracy.

It is also interesting to note that in our Georges St Pierre vs Anderson Silva super fight article the model had Georges St Pierre as the heavy favourite to defeat “The Spider.” With our new model however, the output is 50.07% for St Pierre. That means this fight is basically as close as it could possibly get and adds more intrigue to the potential match-up.

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Next event is UFC on FX: Belfort vs Rockhold coming up in 3 weeks on May 18. We will have our early picks for that event as well as our prediction of the main event of UFC 160: Silva vs Velasquez, coming in the next week or so.