This card comes to us live from Anaheim, California with the preliminary card beginning at 6:30 pm ET on Facebook, the FX portion of the prelims beginning at 8pm and the main card beginning at 10pm ET. We have already discussed the main event between Rousey and Carmouche in depth. In short, Rousey will win by first round arm bar. In addition, three of the remaining four main card picks are detailed here. All our bets will be summarized at the end of this article.
We have no big surprises for our undercard picks. Unfortunately, this event is feeling pretty similar to UFC 156, with only one significant underdog in Henderson in our picks. Realistically though, we have a lot of faith in our model and we expect the outcome to be significantly different. In the “main event” of the undercard, we have Brendan Schaub taking on Lavar Johnson. Our model has Schaub as a slight favourite and at 1.74 to 1, there is decent value in placing this bet. Schaub is coming off a couple losses to Rothwell and Nogueira, but he showed a lot of promise prior to that, especially in his KO win over Mirko Filipovic and unanimous decision victory over Gabriel Gonzaga. Johnson is also coming off defeat, a submission loss at the hands of Stefan Struve. Prior to that though, he had KO wins over Pat Barry and Joey Beltran, clearly not top fighters in the UFC, but formidable opponents nonetheless. Our bet in this fight is 1 unit on Schaub to win 1.74 units.
Our last pick of the main card is Court McGee vs Josh Neer. Our model has McGee as a heavy, heavy favourite and at 1.36 to 1, he doesn’t give the best value, but it is definitely worth placing a 1 unit bet. McGee had a 3 fight win streak following his “The Ultimate Fighter” season 11 victory snapped by Costa Philippou and followed that up with a second decision loss to Nick Ring. Neer, on the other hand has bounced back and forth from the UFC to independent cards, always coming up just short in his bid to remain in the UFC. We don’t expect Neer to be much of a challenge to McGee.
Finally, we have Dennis Bermudez defeating Matt Grice in the second match-up on the FX preliminary card. At 1.28 to 1, he doesn’t offer much value, but we have placed a 1 unit bet.
Rousey over Carmouche. 1 unit at 1.09 to 1
Henderson over Machida. 1 unit at 2.87 to 1
Faber over Menjivar. 1 unit at 1.28 to 1
Koscheck over Lawler. 1 unit at 1.21 to 1
Schaub over Johnson. 1 unit at 1.74 to 1
McGee over Neer. 1 unit at 1.36 to 1
Bermudez over Grice. 1 unit at 1.28 to 1
The best fight odds for UFC 157: