UFC 154 Fight Predictions and Analysis

UFC 154 GSP vs Condit

Predictions (Predicted Winner in Bold, Likelihood in bracket, from 1-10)

Georges St. Pierre vs Carlos Condit (2)
Martin Kampmann vs Johny Hendricks (2)
Francis Carmont vs Tom Lawlor (5)
Mark Hominick vs Pablo Garza (3)
Patrick Cote vs Alessio Sakara (7)
Cyrille Diabate vs Chad Griggs (5)
Sam Stout vs John Makdessi (3)
Mark Bocek vs Rafael Dos Anjos (1)
Steven Siler vs Darren Elkins (6)
Matthew Riddle vs John Maguire (3)

Smart Money:

GSP does not have much value at 1.3 to 1.  At 3.6 to 1, based on the model’s lack of confidence in St. Pierre, there may be some value in betting on Condit.

The odds on Kampmann have fallen in the last week or so, but with the model predicting a Kampmann win and the line on him still over 2 to 1, he has good value.

Carmont is a heavy favourite in the model, but at 1.4 to 1, there is too little reward for the risk.  Hominick as well isn’t giving us a big enough return on our money to be worth betting on, even though he is favoured in the model.

Sakara could be the best value of the night.  He is heavily favoured by the model and every dollar bet on him will return at least $3.35 at the time of writing.  Griggs also holds big value in his fight against Diabate.  Heavily favoured in the model and returning over $2 for every $1 we bet, he is well worth placing a bet on.

There is no value in betting on Sam Stout or Rafael Dos Anjos.  The model does not give us strong enough evidence that they will be successful to be worth placing a bet.

Siler holds some value at 1.9 or more to 1, but at the current lines which are approaching 1.85, it may not be worth placing a bet.

Maguire is a good value bet vs Matt Riddle.  A confidence level of 5 implies a solid reason to believe he can pull out the upset.

Kampmann – 1 unit @ 2.25
Sakara – 1 unit @ 3.4
Griggs – 1 unit @ 2.15
Siler – 1 unit @ 1.9
Maguire – 1 unit @ 2.4

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