Only a few days away now! I’m here to give you the rest of my mathematical model’s predictions. I tried adding handedness as an important factor in the model, but I found no significant difference between southpaw and orthodox fighters.
Firstly, to recap my predictions for the first 3 fights whose odds were up early: (See blog post here)
Benson Henderson over Nate Diaz
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua over Alexander Gustafsson
B.J. Penn over Rory MacDonald
The one of those three I think has the most variability is Penn over MacDonald. It’s been reported time and time again that B.J is a great fighter when he shows up motivated and in shape, but fights where he is not fully committed leave something to be desired.
As for the rest of the picks:
Matt Brown over Mike Swick
John Albert over Scott Jorgensen
Jeremy Stephens over Yves Edwards
Dennis Siver over Nam Phan
Mike Easton over Raphael Assuncao
The best value as of right now appears to be in betting on Shogun Rua, B.J. Penn, Matt Brown, John Albert, all listed as underdogs at the moment. Regardless, as stated in an earlier post, my strategy as of now will be to bet on all fights that I can predict and see how they turn out. As I collect more data (currently about 90 fights), I will better be able to see under what conditions my model performs optimally. The overall win percentage stands around 70% as of right now.
Henderson – 1 unit at 1.6 to 1
Rua – 1 unit at 2.75 to 1
Penn – 1 unit at 3.4 to 1
Brown – 1 unit at 2.15 to 1
Stephens – 1 unit at 1.48 to 1
Albert – 1 unit at 3.2 to 1
Siver – 1 unit at 1.34 to 1
Easton – 1 unit at 1.48 to 1
Hopefully this event goes better than UFC 154, it can’t go any worse right?
I found a site that updates continuously with the best fight odds available. Useful information to see what kind of value you’re getting from your betting site: