Model Update:I’m now seeing about a 76-78% model accuracy based on historical fights. As well, I’m starting to narrow down when I should and shouldn’t place bets based on the model outcome and the odds available. For this coming week and the new year’s card (Junior Dos Santos vs Cain Velasquez!!) I will just be betting on all fights. Starting in January I will try to adjust so that I am only betting where the best value lies.
I’m back with my early picks for UFC on FX this coming weekend. Unfortunately, no odds are up for the TUF Finale this weekend so I won’t have any picks for that yet. It looks like I’ll have a total of 10 predictions with this weekends two events. I’m excited for the two heavyweight fights: Roy Nelson vs Matt Mitrione and Pat Barry vs Shane Del Rosario! (Unfortunate as well to hear about the possibility of Shane Carwin hanging them up. The guy always brought everything to the octagon and came so close to reaching the top in his fight vs Brock Lesnar.)
Anyways on to the two predictions I have so far:
George Sotiropoulos vs Ross Pearson
Hector Lombard vs Rousimar Palhares
I have bet 1 unit on each:
Sotiropoulos at 1.8 to 1
Palhares at 2.87 to 1
I remember Sotiropoulos fighting Joe Stevenson in Sydney at UFC 110 and looking absolutely unreal. Obviously I hope that will continue on Friday with the fight vs Pearson. Both of these fighters tend to put on good fights as evidenced by their combined 4 fight of the night bonuses and it should be a good tilt.
Lombard looked absolutely brutal in his debut vs Tim Boetsch. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in his second fight vs Rousimar Plahares who, like a lot of Brasilians is super dangerous on the ground and 5 of his 7 UFC wins have come by submission.
The odds on the Georges St Pierre vs Anderson Silva potential super fight are a little questionable in my opinion. Georges at +190 and Silva at -225. Without even putting it into my model, I’d put a decent bet on GSP based on those odds alone. He looked pretty damn impressive in his return vs Carlos Condit and I believe he’ll continue to improve as he shakes off the ring rust. Regardless, like most MMA fans I’d be standing and screaming at my TV if it were to happen!
Here are the best odds available for this weekends 2 events (will update as more odds are added):