Got my bets placed on the 4 non-TUF fights on the main card of The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale.
In the main event, we have Matt “Meathead” Mitrione vs Roy “Big Country” Nelson. In this one, my model favours Mitrione heavily and at 3 to 1, there’s definitely good value there. I found Mitrione annoying on The Ultimate Fighter, probably because he was always complaining about his headache, but since then he has been a guy who has had a lot of success. He didn’t look great against Kongo, but he is a guy who continually improves and at 3 to 1, even without the model predicting him winning I’d likely place a bet.
The co-main event is the TUF finale. I haven’t been keeping up with the show and I can’t predict the fight with my model as I’m lacking significant data on both fighters. Purely looking at the odds, having Colton Smith at 2.8 to 1 makes him seem like a good bet. I guess we’ll see what happens there.
As for the rest of the main card I have:
Shane Del Rosario over Pat Barry at 1.58 to 1
Jamie Varner over Melvin Guillard at 1.9 to 1
Dustin Poirier over Jonathan Brookins at 1.42 to 1
I will be back either later today or tomorrow to predict the Joey Beltran vs Igor Pokrajac and Joey Beltran vs Mike Pierce fights from UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs. Pearson. You can see my first two predictions for that event in Sotiropoulos vs Pearson early picks. The main card begins at 9pm ET on Friday and the TUF Finale begins at 9pm ET on Saturday.
In addition, here are the latest and best odds for the TUF finale: