The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale Final Predictions

Since I can’t find anywhere to watch the UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson prelims, I’m going to post my final picks for the TUF Finale tomorrow night. My early picks include Matt Mitrione, Shane Del Rosario, Jamie Varner and Dustin Poirier.

Here’s the full list of picks for the night:

Matt Mitrione over Roy Nelson at 3 to 1
Shane del Rosario over Pat Barry at 1.58 to 1
Jamie Varner over Melvin Guillard at 1.91 to 1
Dustin Poirier over Jonathan Brookins at 1.42 to 1
James Head over Mike Pyle at 2.8 to 1
TJ Waldburger over Nick Catone at 1.77 to 1

Following the 2 events this weekend I will provide an update on the accuracy I am seeing from my model. Hopefully things go well and the accuracy improves to over 80%. Additionally, following the UFC’s end of year card, I will begin to pick based on where I am having success. Interestingly, I am 100% on my predictions of fights between 2.75 and 3 and over 75% on fights at 3 or higher. This only includes fights where I correctly predict the winner. (Obviously if I just said the fighter over 3 to 1 is going to lose, I would probably be able to get 75% correctness too, but no money is made doing that)

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