My model is still not working great as evidenced by this weekends fights. A total record of 3-6 brings my overall betting record to 7-15. If you had bet against me the whole time you would be quite profitable. Like I said before, I will continue to bet on all fights until the end of 2012 (Just UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II left). After that, I will use historical winning percentages to place strategic bets. With some adjustments my model is still around 75-76% accurate.
I am testing the model by removing a random fight and then seeing if I predicted the outcome properly. Realistically, if the model was unable to predict fights, my winning percentage should be close to 50%. It’s hard to believe the winning percentage I am calculating is fully accurate though since my results so far have been well under 50%. You should be able to achieve a winning percentage of approximately 50% by simply flipping a coin.
I will predict Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos and Alan Belcher vs Yushin Okami later this week. I find it hard to believe that Dos Santos won’t defeat Velasquez a second time. Both men are great fighters, but we have seen them fight once before and Dos Santos was able to dispose of Velasquez relatively quickly.
Here are the best odds for UFC 155: