UFC 155: Junior Dos Santos vs Cain Velasquez Early Picks

The model has once again been adjusted and I am ready to post my early picks. I am hoping that over time, as more data is added, my model will converge to a model that truly describes what is happening. Failing that, just bet against my picks as I have been 50% or less on every card so far! As I’ve said before though, in the new year I will begin adjusting my bets to try to be maximally profitable. I will still be providing picks for all the fights I have enough data to predict though.

In the second fight between Dos Santos and Velasquez, the model predicts Cain will come out on top. Cain’s only loss so far has come to Dos Santos and while it may be hard to believe he can beat Dos Santos, it’s definitely plausible he will adjust his game plan and have more success the second time around. I got Velasquez at 2.5 to 1 and it looks like he’s become a bigger dog in the mean time.

In the co-main event between Alan Belcher and Yushin Okami, the model predicts a win by Yushin Okami. Okami had a two fight losing streak to Anderson Silva (everyone loses to The Spider so its ok) and Tim Boetsch. He rebounded at UFC 150 with a win over relative newcomer Buddy Roberts. This fight is also Belcher’s big opportunity to break through to the top of the division after a sick knockout of Rousimar Palhares. The odds currently sit at about 1.86 to 1 on Okami making him a slight favourite, but still paying good value with a win.

As for the rest of the fights with odds up, here are my picks:

Costa Philippou over Tim Boetsch at 1.74 to 1 (if Boetsch can pull this one off, he should be next to challenge for Silva’s crown
Jim Miller over Joe Lauzon at 1.45 to 1
A returning Chris “The Crippler” Leben over Karlos Vemola at 1.51 to 1 – Vemola was scratched, Leben will now face promotion newcomer Derek Brunson

So lots of favourites on this card. We’ll find out December 29, 2012 if the math is correct.


2 thoughts on “UFC 155: Junior Dos Santos vs Cain Velasquez Early Picks

  1. I find the idea of the mathmatical model intriguing… my picks are always based on pure gut instinct. Not that it tends to be accurate. However my gut is saying JDS will get it done against Cain – there’s been a lot of fights where people have said ‘he only needs to land one’ about strikers vs wrestlers, and the striker tends to get dominated (see Hardy / GSP as a prime example) but I’m confident JDS has the tools to allow him to make an oppurtunity to land that big shot. Actually, it looks like the only pick we agree on is Miller to beat Lauzon! I’ll be keeping a close eye on your future picks to see how the model works out….good luck with your bets.

  2. Pingback: UFC 155: Junior Dos Santos vs Cain Velasquez II | Fight Predictor

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s