The model has once again been adjusted and I am ready to post my early picks. I am hoping that over time, as more data is added, my model will converge to a model that truly describes what is happening. Failing that, just bet against my picks as I have been 50% or less on every card so far! As I’ve said before though, in the new year I will begin adjusting my bets to try to be maximally profitable. I will still be providing picks for all the fights I have enough data to predict though.
In the second fight between Dos Santos and Velasquez, the model predicts Cain will come out on top. Cain’s only loss so far has come to Dos Santos and while it may be hard to believe he can beat Dos Santos, it’s definitely plausible he will adjust his game plan and have more success the second time around. I got Velasquez at 2.5 to 1 and it looks like he’s become a bigger dog in the mean time.
In the co-main event between Alan Belcher and Yushin Okami, the model predicts a win by Yushin Okami. Okami had a two fight losing streak to Anderson Silva (everyone loses to The Spider so its ok) and Tim Boetsch. He rebounded at UFC 150 with a win over relative newcomer Buddy Roberts. This fight is also Belcher’s big opportunity to break through to the top of the division after a sick knockout of Rousimar Palhares. The odds currently sit at about 1.86 to 1 on Okami making him a slight favourite, but still paying good value with a win.
As for the rest of the fights with odds up, here are my picks:
Costa Philippou over Tim Boetsch at 1.74 to 1 (if Boetsch can pull this one off, he should be next to challenge for Silva’s crown
Jim Miller over Joe Lauzon at 1.45 to 1
A returning Chris “The Crippler” Leben over Karlos Vemola at 1.51 to 1 – Vemola was scratched, Leben will now face promotion newcomer Derek Brunson
So lots of favourites on this card. We’ll find out December 29, 2012 if the math is correct.