UFC 155: Junior Dos Santos vs Cain Velasquez II

With the late addition of Jamie Varner vs Melvin Guillard which was supposed to take place at the TUF 16 Finale on December 15 before Varner fell ill, I am able to predict 9 out of 12 fights on the card.

To recap my early picks:

Cain Velasquez over Junior Dos Santos at 2.5 to 1
Yushin Okami over Alan Belcher at 1.8 to 1
Costa Philippou over Tim Boetsch at 1.74 to 1
Jim Miller over Joe Lauzon at 1.45 to 1

Removed from the card is Chris Leben vs Karlos Vemola where I had “The Crippler” at 1.51 to 1. After Vemola was scratched from the fight, UFC newcomer and Strikeforce crossover Derek Brunson stepped in as a replacement. My model has Brunson winning this battle (and it always seems to be a battle if Leben is involved). I got in at 2.4 to 1. Leben, Velasquez and Philippou (slight) are my underdog picks on the card. Below are my remaining 5 picks for the card:

Derek Brunson over Chris Leben at 2.4 to 1
Melvin Guillard over Jamie Varner at 1.8 to 1
Eddie Wineland over Brad Pickett at 1.8 to 1
Todd Duffee over Philip De Fries at 1.3 to 1
Max Holloway over Leonard Garcia at 1.25 to 1

In addition, I have a parlay of strong favourites to generate a litte more profit should they all win. I picked Jim Miller, Todd Duffee and Max Holloway and got 2.32 to 1.

Win or lose, it will be an exciting night of fights and a great main event as UFC Heavyweight Title fights always are!

As a somewhat comical example of the types of things you can get into with MMA Math that I touched on in a previous post. I put Chris Leben vs Derek Brunson into an online MMA math caculator. Here’s the results:

Derek Brunson > Nathan James > Danillo Villefort > Matt Horwich > Jason MacDonald > Chris Leben
Chris Leben > Patrick Cote > Kendall Grove > Derek Brunson

So both guys win. Brunson wins through a few guys I’ve never heard of, but this example still illustrates how useless this prediction methodology is.

Here’s the latest odds for UFC 155:


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s