With the late addition of Jamie Varner vs Melvin Guillard which was supposed to take place at the TUF 16 Finale on December 15 before Varner fell ill, I am able to predict 9 out of 12 fights on the card.
To recap my early picks:
Cain Velasquez over Junior Dos Santos at 2.5 to 1
Yushin Okami over Alan Belcher at 1.8 to 1
Costa Philippou over Tim Boetsch at 1.74 to 1
Jim Miller over Joe Lauzon at 1.45 to 1
Removed from the card is Chris Leben vs Karlos Vemola where I had “The Crippler” at 1.51 to 1. After Vemola was scratched from the fight, UFC newcomer and Strikeforce crossover Derek Brunson stepped in as a replacement. My model has Brunson winning this battle (and it always seems to be a battle if Leben is involved). I got in at 2.4 to 1. Leben, Velasquez and Philippou (slight) are my underdog picks on the card. Below are my remaining 5 picks for the card:
Derek Brunson over Chris Leben at 2.4 to 1
Melvin Guillard over Jamie Varner at 1.8 to 1
Eddie Wineland over Brad Pickett at 1.8 to 1
Todd Duffee over Philip De Fries at 1.3 to 1
Max Holloway over Leonard Garcia at 1.25 to 1
In addition, I have a parlay of strong favourites to generate a litte more profit should they all win. I picked Jim Miller, Todd Duffee and Max Holloway and got 2.32 to 1.
Win or lose, it will be an exciting night of fights and a great main event as UFC Heavyweight Title fights always are!
As a somewhat comical example of the types of things you can get into with MMA Math that I touched on in a previous post. I put Chris Leben vs Derek Brunson into an online MMA math caculator. Here’s the results:
Derek Brunson > Nathan James > Danillo Villefort > Matt Horwich > Jason MacDonald > Chris Leben
Chris Leben > Patrick Cote > Kendall Grove > Derek Brunson
So both guys win. Brunson wins through a few guys I’ve never heard of, but this example still illustrates how useless this prediction methodology is.
Here’s the latest odds for UFC 155: