I was wrong in my previous post when I said I would be predicting UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping this week. The event is on the 19th, so I’m here to predict the outcomes of the final Strikeforce event which happens tomorrow night.
Unfortunately, I only have enough data to predict 3 fights on this card. In addition, I have decided to only bet half units since I am not sure if the model applies well to Strikeforce fights although I would assume the fights should have a similar underlying mechanism.
On the line for many of the fighters on this card is the opportunity to fight in the UFC. Wins may not guarantee contracts for all, but decisive finishes will go a big way towards getting the fighters new contracts. I am interested in seeing how Barnett and Cormier perform as each could add some life to the UFC’s heavyweight division. Unfortunately, I cannot predict either of these fights because of limited data on their opponents.
In the main event, in an important fight for both fighters to give themselves a boost prior to the UFC takeover, my model has Nate Marquardt defeating Tarec Saffiedine. The second fight I can predict on the main card is Gegard Mousasi vs Mik Kyle. I have the favourite in this fight as well, taking Mousasi. Since neither of these fights have particularly good odds, I am combining the two into a parlay at 1.63 to 1.
The only other fight I am predicting on this card is K.J. Noons vs Ryan Couture. In this fight, my model has Noons winning and I picked him up at 1.588 to 1.
Regardless of the outcome, it should be an exciting night of fights with some fighters fighting to earn a job. Next up is UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping and I will have my picks for the 3 fights I can predict late next week.
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Mousasi and Marquardt at 1.63 to 1
Noons at 1.588 to 1
Here are the latest odds for the event: