This is the first event where I have adjusted the number of units I have bet based on the output of my model. I increased some bets prior to the fights yesterday because there are certain areas where the model seems to be more successful than others.
The first bet of the night was on Diego Nunes to beat Nick Lentz. Lentz came in with a great gameplan, smothering Nunes for almost the entire fight. When the fighters were separated for a brief period of time at the end of rounds 2 and 3, it was clear Nunes was the better stand up fighter. In an onbvious decision, Lentz was the unanimous victor showing how important the execution of a great game plan can be in MMA.
The second bet of the night was on Gabriel Gonzaga to beat Ben Rothwell. Generally, Rothwell was seen going into the fight as the better stand up fighter. Interestingly, Gonzaga was able to outstrike his taller opponent, landing a couple rights to the jaw in round 1 and a couple more in round 2 that stunned Rothwell and allowed Gonzaga to get him with a guillotine choke.
The final bet I had on this card was on Vitor Belfort to defeat Michael Bisping. The size difference between the two men prior to the fight was immense. Vitor Belfort seems to be in the best shape of his life at the age of 35 which definitely adds credibility to the TRT theory. The majority of the first round was spent with both fighters feeling out their range. The fight ended in the second round when Belfort landed his second head kick of the fight and then pounced and finished Bisping off.
Overall it was a successful night:
Total Profit: 0.93 units
Win 0.8 units on Belfort over Bisping (bet was 1 unit to win 0.8 units)
Win 1.63 units on Gonzaga over Rothwell (bet was 2 units to win 1.63 units)
Loss 1.5 units on Lentz over Nunes (bet was 1.5 units to win 0.91 units)