First of all, it’s funny that Rampage vs Teixeira didn’t receive fight of the night. There’s clearly some major behind the scenes politics which kind of makes the reward less valuable. Maybe I’m wrong, but I didn’t see the main event as that exciting. As I’ve said before though, the lack of a one punch knock-out threat kind of makes a fight less exciting to me so maybe I’m just biased towards heavier fighters.
On to the results. Demetrious Johnson ended up defeating John Dodson after a couple of early knockdowns by the challenger. As Mike Goldberg and Joe Rogan repeatedly said, it seemed like the champion had far superior conditioning and he took advantage of this by pushing the action in rounds 3, 4 and 5. With my 2 unit bet on this, I won 0.93 units. In addition to this I had the Bader, Johnson parlay on the line and with Bader’s destruction of Vladimir Matyushenko, I won another 0.72 units.
In the lightweight clash between Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone, Pettis was able to hit his kicks at will and eventually finished Cerrone off with a right kick to the liver. A 1 unit bet on this fight nets me 0.91 units.
The other big win I had on the night was Shawn Jordan over Mike Russow. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Russow as fat as he was in this fight and his lack of cardio was clear. He definitely took round 1, but his mouth was wide open and he even bent over with his hands on his knees after the round. In the second round, Jordan started to take over and eventually finished Russow with punches. My 1 unit bet net me a nice 1.65 units.
The Hioki vs Guida fight was closer than I think most people expected going in. Obviously, my model saw something in the stats to indicate Hioki would win, but he was only slightly favoured. Guida got him on the ground and was able to stay on top for a lot of the fight and usually in MMA, that’s enough to take a win. Somehow, one judge scored the fight in Hioki’s favour, but there was no way he deserved to win after being on the bottom for so long. This fight lost me 1 unit.
In Wiman vs Grant, Grant was able to land his elbows early and often, taking Wiman out in the first round. A loss of 1 unit for me. In Koch vs Lamas, Lamas showed his superior grappling skills, eventually finishing Koch with the ground and pound. Another 1.5 units lost.
Overall, the card results in a 0.71 unit profit. Not the greatest when total bets are 8.5 units, but where can you find an investment that returns almos 10% overnight.
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