Welcome to the new domain, http://www.thefightpredictor.com. The main card picks for this card are pretty straight forward, and to some they are obvious (including the oddsmakers). If you’re ready to start betting, see our getting started page for instructions.
The main event is Frankie Edgar vs the UFC featherweight champ, Jose Aldo. Aldo has been on an unreal run having not lost in over 7 years. The model doesn’t see this fight going any differently than his last 14 (all wins). At 1.42 to 1, its not the greatest value, but with the model chugging along at 80% accuracy, there’s definitely a lot of value in the 1 unit bet I am placing. As for Edgar, this marks his first fight at featherweight after losing two close decisions to current lightweight champion Benson Henderson for the title.
Rashad Evans vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in the co-main event should be an exciting fight. I expect Evans to look to stand to avoid the black belt jiu jitsu of Nogueira, but getting a take down and attempting to ground and pound is not out of the question. Realistically though, Nogueira has lost to Ryan Bader and Phil Davis in his last 3 fights and only beaten Tito Ortiz. While not slouches, Bader and Davis are not at the top of the division and Evans only loss in his last five was to light heavyweight champ, Jon “Bones” Jones. The model agrees with my analysis, but at 1.22 to 1, I am going to hold off on betting on Evans until I can parlay it to get a better return.
Alistair Overeem is in a similar situation in his fight vs Antonio Silva. The Reem hasn’t lost in over 5 years, and in recent promotional posters he looks bigger than ever. Legitimate or not, the guy is a dangerous fighter and I see Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva facing a similar fate to his fight against Cain Velasquez. In fact, he probably would have been cut after losing to Travis Browne, but Browne got injured and Silva was able to capitalize. I see Silva losing this fight and the fight being his last in the UFC. In this fight as well, the model goes with the obvious selection, but again, at 1.28 to 1, I am going to hold off on betting until I can parlay this with some other fights.
Jose Aldo over Frankie Edgar. 1 unit at 1.42 to 1
Jon Fitch over Demian Maia. 1 unit at 1.59 to 1
Joseph Benavidez over Ian McCall. 1 unit at 1.38 to 1
As always, here are the latest odds from BestFightOdds.com: