UFC 156 comes to us from the Mandalay Bay Events Centre in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday. The Facebook prelims begin around 7 pm ET, the FX card begins at 8 pm ET and the main card begins, as always, at 10pm on pay-per view. My picks for the main card are available in my early picks blog.
I left the Alistair Overeem, Rashad Evans fights without betting on them because I didn’t like the odds that were offered. Since I expect both of them to win a very high percent of the time, I have parlayed them twice with a couple of fights from the undercard that also don’t have the greatest odds. The first parlay involves Jake Volkmann winning over former Strikeforce fighter Bobby Green. Volkmann had a nice run going before being submitted by Paul Sass at UFC 146. Green has been on a nice run lately, but it is very hard to guess how he will fare in the UFC. At 1.28 to 1, it’s not the greatest value so adding the two other main card bouts to make this a three play parlay gives 1.96 to 1.
The second parlay involves the first fight of the night which will be between Edwin Figueroa and Fransisco Rivera. My model favours Rivera and just like the theme of the rest of the night, he is a heavy favourite at 1.31 to 1 even though he is fresh off suspension. I again parlayed this fight with the Overeem and Evans fights for a total return of 2.04 to 1.
The highest odds I am getting on the night comes from the Gleison Tibau vs Evan Dunham affair which is supposed to be extremely close according to the oddsmakers. According to my model, Tibau is heavily favoured and at 1.91 to 1, I am happy to place this bet. For this fight, I am betting 1.5 units total. The records of the two fighters seem to confirm that Tibau should be favoured. He is 4-1 in his last 5 with the only loss being an extremely close split decision to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Dunham is 2-3 in his last 5, but he is entertaining, taking fight of the night in 3 of 5.
Aldo over Edgar, 1 unit at 1.42 to 1
Fitch over Maia, 1.5 units at 1.588 to 1
Benavidez over McCall, 1 unit at 1.38 to 1
Tibau over Dunham, 1.5 units at 1.91 to 1
Woodley over Hieron, 0.5 units at 1.76 to 1
Overeem, Evans, Volkmann over Silva, Nogueira, Green, 1 unit at 1.958 to 1
Overeem, Evans, Rivera over Silva, Nogueira, Figueroa, 1 unit at 2.04 to 1
As always, here are the latest odds from BestFightOdds.com: