UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar Breakdown and Betting Results

The Good:

To start the night, Francisco Rivera finished Edwin Figueroa late in round 2. While Figueroa may have taken the first round, it was obvious his cardio was not where it needed to be. Rivera took advantage by taking control from the start of the second round and eventually got the finish. Parlay with Evans and Overeem is still in tact. (1 Unit to win 2.04)

Tyron Woodley knocked out Jay Hieron in a matter of seconds. He is now 10-1 and with his only loss coming the Nate Marquardt, he is on the verge of becoming an upper echelon of UFC welterweight fighters. First bet win of the night, but it was only a half unit bet so it nets me 0.38 units.

Joseph Benavidez was clearly superior to Ian McCall. McCall took all the punishment with a smile on his face, but besides for a short while when he was on top in the second round, Benavidez had the fight under control. The one unit bet I placed on Benavidez nets me another 0.38 units.

In the main event, Jose Aldo took it to Frankie Edgar. Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg correctly pointed out that this was the first time we’ve seen Edgar in the UFC octagon and he hasn’t been the faster competitor. In addition, although both men were landing, only one looked like he was getting beaten up and that was Edgar. By the end of the fight, his nose was bloody and he had a huge mouse under his left eye. It’s always scary when the fight goes to decision, but the judges got this one right scoring it 49-46, 49-46, 48-47 in favour of Aldo. My 1 unit bet results in a 0.42 unit profit.

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The Bad:

I felt like Jakob Volkmann took the first two rounds against UFC newcomer Bobby Green. In the third round however, some of the punishment he had taken from Green in the form of viscous elbows seemed to slow Volkmann down. The fight went to the ground towards the end of the round and Green managed to get in a mount position. He made not mistake from there, raining down punches and elbows and eventually locking up a rear naked to finish the fight. My first loss of the night was the first leg of a parlay. It was a 1 unit bet, so taked 1 out of the total.

One of the most exciting fights of the night was a light weight tilt between Gleison Tibau and Evan Dunham. Both fighters landed a whole bunch of punches in this one. Speaking of which, Gleison Tibau throws his punches with bad intentions. He swings for the fences with every single punch he throws. Unfortunately, it seemed like as the fight wore on he began to tire, which is common when one fighter carries a significant amount more muscle than another. In addition, he struggled with the speed of Dunham and was not able to land the big shots he needed to with enough consistency. The result of the fight is a debatable split decision win for Dunham. A 1.5 unit loss for me.

I don’t have a lot to say about Jon Fitch vs Demian Maia. It was one of the most boring fights I have seen recently with Demian Maia locking in a body triangle and basically smothering Fitch for 3 rounds. Maia does deserve props for being able to thoroughly dominate Fitch, but the complete lack of aggressive attacking makes for a very dull fight. At some point, even though Maia was in a dominant position, I was almost expecting the ref to break them apart because nothing was happening. Obvious decision victory for Demian Maia. Another 1.5 unit loss for me.

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The Ugly:

Alistair Overeem is a fucking moron. He had the fight in the bag, all he had to do was continue to do what he had been doing. For some unknown reason, (maybe he was angry) he decided to be hyper aggressive at the beginning of the third round. Antonio Bigfoot Silva made Overeem pay for his lack of respect of the striking of Silva by knocking him senseless against the cage and then throwing punch after punch to a defenseless Overeem. I think I need to add something to my model to account for the fact that Overeem is a cocky, arrogant, idiot. This fight resulted in the loss of the Rivera, Overeem, Evans parlay. Another 1 unit loss.

Rashad Evans and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira seemed to completely stifle each others attack. It seemed for the entire fight like both of them hadn’t slept the night before or something. The total lack of offense resulted in a unanimous decision win for Nogueira, but Evans has to attempt more offense than he did in this fight if he ever wants to win again. During the first break, it was obvious that Rashad was already breathing heavy and I began to feel the upset coming. Since Overeem already lost, I didn’t lose any additional money here, but it was still disappointing to see Rashad fight like that.

Win 0.42 units on Aldo defeating Edgar
Win 0.38 units on Benavidez defeating McCall
Win 0.38 units on Woodley defeating Hieron
Lose 1.5 units on Maia beating Fitch
Lose 1.5 units on Dunham beating Tibau
Lose 1 unit on Overeem and Evans losing to Silva and Nogueira, won Rivera over Figueroa on this parlay
Lose 1 unit on Volkmann, Overeem and Evans losing to Green, Silva and Nogueira

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