The UFC is live from the Wembley Arena in London, England starting at 12pm ET on Facebook with the Fuel TV card beginning at 3pm ET. Brazilian Renan Barao defends his interim UFC Bantamweight title against American Michael McDonald in the first time a title has been defended on Fuel TV. (Is this a sign of things to come for the sub-lightweight weight classes or just because it’s an interim title?) After running the data through the model I have come up with some interesting picks in what could be a very profitable event.
To the surprise of noone, in the main event, I have Renan Barao retaining his title when he faces Michael McDonald. The output from my model strongly suggests a Barao win and at 1.34 to 1, there is value in the 1 unit bet I am placing. Both men are riding long winning streaks into this fight. McDonald’s 3.5 year, 8 fight win streak seems impressive until you look at Barao’s 7.5 year, 28 win streak. McDonald has finished 13/15 of his wins while Barao has finished almost 2/3 of his 29 wins. Regardless of who wins this fight, it should be an exciting battle for the UFC Bantamweight title.
In the co-main event between Dustin Poirier and Cub Swanson, my model predicts the upset as it has the slight underdog Poirier taking it. Since featherweight is not one of the stronger divisions that the model predicts, I am placing a single unit bet on Poirier to win 2.04 units. Poirier is coming off a win over Jonathan Brookins after a disappointing submission loss to Chan Sung Jung. Swanson, on the other hand has 3 straight wins by KO or TKO over Roop, Pearson and Oliveira respectively. Both fighters have finished more than 2/3rds of their fights so there is a good possibility that this fight doesn’t make it to the judges scorecards.
Next up, to start off the main card, we have Matthew Riddle defeating Che Mills. Riddle is strongly favoured in the model and at 3.04 to 1, he comes with great value. In my opinion, I see the strong wrestling Riddle brings to the cage as his biggest asset and the possibility of him being able to smother Mills muay thai with his wrestling techniques is strong.
Barao over McDonald. 1 unit at 1.34 to 1
Poirier over Swanson. 1 unit at 2.04 to 1
Riddle over Mills. 1 unit at 3.04 to 1
Sass over Castillo. 1 unit at 1.83 to 1
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The latest UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs McDonald odds are here: