Overall, we correctly predicted 2 out of 4 fights on this card. This lead to a small profit of 0.38 units, equivalent to a 9.5% return from our 4 units bet. As always, any time we come out positive it is encouraging progress towards our goal of being able to predict fights consistently enough to make a profit with our model.
In the main event, we had Renan Barao to defeat Michael McDonald. Barao took care of business, winning the first three rounds on our scorecard before submitting McDonald via arm-triangle choke in round 4. An exciting fight and a 0.34 unit win for us.
In the co-main event, we had Dustin Poirier defeating Cub Swanson. Poirer looked good in what turned out to be a back and forth affair, however Cub Swanson gained the edge and took the unanimous decision. We had Swanson taking the 1st and 3rd round so we have no complaints. Result: a 1 unit loss.
In the first fight of the televised card, we had Matt Riddle to defeat Che Mills at a juicy 3.04 to 1. The line dropped a lot over the week leading up to the fight; an indication that others saw value as well. Come fight time the best available odds were around 2.5 to 1. Riddle took down Mills and basically stayed on top for 3/4 of the fight and seemed like he could have for the entire fight, but decided to stand and trade with the muay thai striker at times (scary times for us!). The decision victory for Riddle gave us a 2.04 unit profit on our 1 unit bet.
Our first prediction of the night was Paul Sass to defeat Danny Castillo. These fights were streamed live through Facebook, prior to the televised coverage. [You can Follow us on twitter here for links to these events]. This fight turned out to be relatively low on action, with Castillo on top for the entire fight. Sass was able to mount very little offense besides a bunch of leg lock and triangle choke submission attempts in the first round. In an obvious decision, Castillo took all 3 rounds on 2 of 3 judges score cards. This fight led to a 1 unit loss.
We will be back soon with our early picks for UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche which is quickly shaping up to be one of the most exciting UFC events to date! As always, here are the latest odds: