Rousey vs Carmouche
We were absolutely right with our prediction that Ronda Rousey would defeat Liz Carmouche via first round arm bar. Not that it takes a genius or a statistical model to figure that one out. It was a little scary at one point with Carmouche taking Rousey’s back and locking in a tight face crank. In the end though, Rousey shows why she was favoured as high as 1.07 to 1 on some sports books as she found a way to lock in her specialty, the arm bar. We win a paltry 0.09 units.
Henderson vs Machida
In what was one of the biggest let downs of the card, Lyoto Machda defeated Dan Henderson by split decision. While it is easy to argue the first round went to Machida with his takedown and not much else happening, we were extremely dissatisfied that 2 of 3 judges had Machida winning the second round as well. Throughout the fight, Henderson was pushing forward and Machida was retreating. In the second round, while neither fighter landed much offense, the fact that Henderson was pushing forward througout should have been enough for him to take the round. We agree with all three judges that Henderson takes the third round with the big take down and some ground and pound. Machida takes the fight 2 rounds to 1 and we lose 1 unit.
Faber vs Menjivar
Faber basically went out and showed that he was the superior man in this fight. Menjivar got a takedown, but Faber was able to quickly take top position. Eventually, as Menjivar tried to get up, Faber got his back and made no mistake locking in a rear naked choke and forcing Menjivar to tap. We win 0.28 units.
Koscheck vs Lawler
Koscheck managed to take Lawler down quickly, but gave up top position. Lawler made no mistake from there as he pounded Koscheck out. Debatable stoppage, but we feel that if the referee hadn’t stepped in when he had, Koscheck would have continued to take punishment until he went to sleep. We lose 1 unit.
Bermudez vs Grice
In what may be fight of the year, Dennis Bermudez pounded the crap out of an almost asleep Matt Grice for almost the entire third round. Somehow, Grice was able to survive and even managed some offense. This one was extremely nerve racking for those of us with money on the line, but Bermudez did enough to take the big “W”. We win 0.28 units.
McGee over Neer – McGee beat up Neer in the first round. The second round was more even, but McGee was dominant again in the third, setting a record for strikes landed by a welterweight. We win 0.36 units.
Schaub over Johnson – Schaub seemingly took Johnson down at will and was able to maintain control from the top for the vast majority of the fight. We win 0.74 units.
Event Result: 5 wins, 2 losses
Event Profit: -0.25 units
This just goes to show how dangerous MMA betting can be. Just because you pick accurately doesn’t guarantee a profit.
We’ll be back early this week to post our early UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs Stann predictions.