UFC on Fuel TV is live this weekend from the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan and for a UFC on Fuel TV card it actually looks to be a pretty decent line up. The Facebook prelims begin at 7pm ET, with the main card starting at 10pm ET. We have 6 picks for this card. Generally, we have been able to pick 3 or 4 fights on these smaller cards so we are excited to be able to pick this many fights! Without further adue, here are the picks:
In the main event, our model surprisingly has Wanderlei Silva defeating Brian Stann. At 3.4 to 1, there’s all kinds of value in placing a 1 unit bet on Silva and that’s exactly what we’re doing. Silva is an absolute legend of the sport and has tons of power in his hands, at one point he won 11 of 12 fights in pride by KO or TKO(he also had 1 no contest during that streak) . Sometimes (all the time), he throws caution to the wind, turning the vast majority of his fights into brawls. In his last 5 though, he is only 2-3 with 2 decision losses to Rich Franklin and a KO loss to “The Crippler” Chris Leben. Stann has also had a rough go of it in his last 5, losing 2 to Michael Bisping and Chael Sonnen respectively. If we were to pick a winner purely on their recent records, we would likely pick Stann, but we will go with what the model says in this one.
In the co-main event, 7 foot tall Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve takes on 5 foot 10 Mark Hunt. Hunt is on a 3 fight win streak since debuting in the UFC about 2 years ago. 2 of those 3 wins have come by way of TKO or KO for the former professional kick boxer. Struve has also been on a nice run lately, winning 4 in a row, 2 by TKO and 2 by submission. We feel Struve will effectively use his height and reach to mitigate the power advantage of Hunt, and eventually allow Struve to win via submission. At 1.58 to 1, there is still a lot of value in betting on Struve too. We placed a 1 unit bet on Struve.
In the co-co-main event (is that the term for it?), we have Diego Sanchez defeating “The Fireball Kid” Takanori Gomi. Gomi surprised us in his last outing against Mac Danzig when he was able to control the action and take a split decision. Our model heavily favours Sanchez and at 1.38 to 1, it’s not the greatest value, but based on the model output we definitely expect him to win enough to make this a significantly positive expected value bet. We placed a 1 unit bet on Sanchez at 1.38 to 1.
The only other underdog we have on the card is Yushin Okami defeating Hector Lombard. Okami is heavily favoured in our model and at at 2.85 to 1, there is huge value in placing this bet. Lombard looked terrible vs Tim Boetsch, but good vs Rousimar Palhares. We feel there is a good chance of Yushin Okami being able to pull out the big victory.
Silva over Stann. 1 unit at 3.4 to 1
Struve over Hunt. 1 unit at 1.58 to 1
Sanchez over Gomi. 1 unit at 1.38 to 1
Okami over Lombard. 1 unit at 2.85 to 1
Tavares over Fukuda. 1 unit at 1.87 to 1
Mizugaki over Caraway. 1 unit at 1.49 to 1
Here are the latest odds for UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs Stann: