UFC 158 is live this Saturday. You can see our analysis and prediction of St Pierre vs Diaz and our early picks of the 2 fights before the main event. The main card begins at 10pm ET as usual on pay-per-view with the FX prelims beginning at 8pm ET and the Facebook prelims at 6:30pm ET. This card is very top heavy as evidenced by us only being able to predict 6 fights (the same number as at UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs Stann two weeks ago).
In our last prediction of the main card, (how is Mike Ricci vs Colin Fletcher on the main card anyway? Special TUF promotion or something, Ricci has an entirely underwhelming record, maybe a half unit bet on Fletcher isn’t all bad considering he’s 3.46 to 1) we have Nick Ring over Chris Camozzi. Both fighters are upper-middle tier middleweights looking to break through with a big win. The winner of this fight likely earns a shot at a bigger name in the middleweight division. Both fighters have won 3 of their last 4. Ring has finished 8 of his 13 wins (and only has 1 loss). Camozzi has a pretty similar finish record with 11 of his 18 wins, but he has 5 career losses with 3 coming by way of submission. Look for Ring to lock up an early submission victory. We bet 1 unit on Ring at 1.89 to 1.
Next up we have Darren Elkins taking the co-main event of the FX card over Antonio Carvalho. Carvalho is in just his 3rd UFC fight and is riding a 2 fight win streak with wins over Rodrigo Damm and Daniel Pineda. Two guys who are far from household names and towards the lower echelon of the featherweight division. Elkins on the other hand has won 4 straight including a win over solid contenders Diego Brandao and Steven Siler. As expected, the odds on Elkins aren’t the greatest, but still give good value. We placed a 1 unit bet on Elkins at 1.5 to 1.
Finally, in a new move for our betting strategy, we have placed a 0.5 unit bet on Dan Miller to defeat Jordan Mein. Mein is actually predicted to win by our model, but only slightly and at 1.36, the risk of betting on him is not worth it. Therefore, we are betting 0.5 units on Miller at 3.52 to 1. It will be an interesting experiment. Regardless of whether we win or lose, we feel this strategy will pay off with positive EV in the long run.
St Pierre over Diaz. 1 unit at 1.23 to 1
Hendricks over Condit. 1 unit at 1.77 to 1
Ellenberger over Marquardt. 1 unit at 1.62 to 1
Ring over Camozzi. 1 unit at 1.89 to 1
Elkins over Carvalho. 1 unit at 1.5 to 1
Miller over Mein. 0.5 units at 3.52 to 1
Here are the best odds for UFC 158: