UFC 158 went down last night from the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada and our model was bang on with its predictions for the majority of the night. This lead to a small profit of 0.62 units overall with a betting record of 4-2 and a prediction record of 5-1. (The difference is because we bet on Miller to defeat Mein even though our model had Mein winning because Mein was heavily favoured by the oddsmakers, i.e. there was little to be gained betting on Mein)
Prediction Model Update
Some observations from the past 3 events:
1. 5-1 at UFC 158 brings our model to 15-4 over the last 3 events. This translates to a win percentage of close to 78% which is extremely close to what we stated near the bottom of our article about parlays.
2. The fights we are losing are those where the output of the model isn’t as strong. It is probably time to go back to betting in multiple different increments depending on our model output.
3. Our predicted probabilities are starting to fall into line with what the actual correctness is. For example, if the model output is 0.75, we are seeing that fighter win about 75% of the time.
4. Using our estimations, which seem to be close to reality at this point, we are seeing an average profit of 0.5 units per fight. Therefore, in the four UFC events in April where we will have a total of 22 picks, we should expect to make somewhere close to 11 units. Keep in mind, estimating based on the past will not necessarily give perfect results.
Georges St Pierre vs Nick Diaz
What we said in our early preview of St Pierre vs Diaz on February 28 was bang on. St Pierre took Diaz down, seemingly at will. At one point in the third round when it looked like some of Diaz’s punches were beginning to phase St Pierre, Georges simply took Diaz down once again. In typical GSP fashion, he did what it takes to win, but didn’t take undue risks to try and finish the fight. It doesn’t seem to matter what type of fight GSP fights, if he wins and stays humble, the people will love him. We profit 0.23 units.
Johnny Hendricks vs Carlos Condit
Hendricks looked awesome for the first two rounds against Condit. While he did struggle to keep Condit on his back, he was able to take him down many times, leaving no doubt as to who won the first two rounds. In the third round, Condit was able to take some measure of revenge, feeding Hendricks many decent punches right until the final bell. Hendricks took the decision with all 3 judges scoring the contest 29-28. With this win, Hendricks will get the next title shot vs Georges St Pierre, likely slated for late summer or fall. We profited 0.77 units on this fight.
Jake Ellenberger vs Nate Marquardt
It took Ellenberger just 3 minutes to dispose of the returning Marquardt. Marquardt disputed the stoppage, but it was obvious watching the replay that the ref stepping in saved him some substantial punishment. Ellenberger was previously ranked #6, but with this win he will likely jump ahead of Demian Maia for the 5th position and should set him up for a top 5 welterweight fight in his next contest. Ellenberger’s win gave us a profit of 0.62 units.
Nick Ring vs Chris Camozzi
In a closely contested fight, Camozzi took the split decision over Nick Ring. Stylistically, both fighters being in Taekwondo stances led to limited offense and a slow pace. Ring just seemed to have trouble figuring out Camozzi throughout, only managing to land offensively in the third round (even then, it was not a lot of offense). This fight lost us 1 unit.
St Pierre over Diaz – +0.23 units
Hendricks over Condit – +0.77 units
Ellenberger over Marquardt – +0.62 units
Camozzi over Ring – -1.0 units
Elkins over Carvalho – +0.5 units
Mein over Miller – -0.5 units
Profit: 0.62 units
Model Correct: 5 out of 6
Bets Correct: 4 out of 6