UFC on Fuel TV 9 will take place this Saturday from the Ericsson Globe Arena in Stockholm, Sweden. The televised card begins at 11am ET, with the Facebook prelims beginning bright and early over here in North America at 7:30 am ET. Interestingly, TUF 17 first round losers, Tor Troeng and Adam Cella will face each other on the prelims. This follows the news that Dana White has signed every cast member of this season’s TUF. At 3 to 1, Cella may be worth some serious consideration as he is 4-0 with all his wins coming in the first round.
We now know in the main event, it will be Ilir Latifi vs Gegard Mousasi. Realistically, there is little reason to believe Latifi will be able to defeat the seasoned veteran, Mousasi, and the odds have a very limited payoff on Mousasi. In addition, Latifi, being a new fighter does not fit our model so we are unable to predict the fight anyway. I would say though, at 1.3 to 1 or higher, its probably worth placing a bet on Mousasi for what will likely be some easy money. Also note that the model did have Gustafsson as a significant favourite. So much so that we planned to place a 1.5 unit bet at 1.39 to 1.
Unfortunately, the main event change only leaves us 4 fights to predict. On the good news front however, they are the 4 fights prior to the main event, so you don’t have to wake up super early to see how our picks do. First up, in the co-main event, the model has Ryan Couture defeating Ross Pearson. Ryan Couture is a relative unknown in the UFC, making his debut after going 6-1 in Strikeforce. His previous win over upper tier Strikeforce lightweight, K.J. Noons was questionable, but a win is a win. Pearson is 3-3 in his last 6 and will be looking to build some momentum following his K.O. win over opposing TUF: The Smashes coach, George Sotiropoulos. At 4.36 to 1, the 1 unit bet on Couture has significant profit possibilities.
In the heavyweight division, Matt Mitrione takes on Philip De Fries. Mitrione has been vocal about this fight being a “loser leaves town,” type of contest with both fighters standing on 2-2 records in their last 4. The fighters have contrasting styles, with each possessing stoppages in all, but one of their career fights. The difference lies in the fact that De Fries has stopped 8 of 9 all by submission, while Mitrione has stopped 4 of 5 by KO. While we are careful about jumping to conclusions, this could be an indicator that De Fries possesses more all around mixed martial arts skills. Then again, maybe Mitrione is able to finish his fights before they have time to go to the ground. Only time will tell who takes this heavyweight tilt, but our model says the underdog De Fries will win. Therefore, we placed a 1 unit bet on De Fries at 3.79 to 1.
The second fight we will be predicting on Saturday is a bantamweight fight between Brad Pickett and Mike Easton. Easton was on a roll, winning his first 3 UFC fights before losing to Raphael Asuncao at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz. Pickett is also coming off a loss, losing a split decision to Eddie Wineland at UFC 155. Pickett has finished a much higher percentage of his wins at 17/22, while Easton has finished 6 of his 13 victories. Our model has Easton winning the vast majority of the time in this fight, and as the underdog at 2.48 to 1, our 1.5 unit bet on Easton has a high EV.
Couture over Pearson. 1 unit at 4.36 to 1
De Fries over Mitrione. 1 unit at 3.79 to 1
Easton over Pickett. 1.5 units at 2.48 to 1
Garza over Brandao. 1.5 unit at 2.95 to 1
Here are the latest odds: