We already posted our early betting picks for this event and with weigh ins just complete making the fights official, we are ready to do our full event predictions. The facebook prelims for this event get underway at 4pm ET, the FX prelims begin at 5pm ET and the main card begins live on Fox (and Sportsnet in Canada) at 8pm ET. All the action comes to us live from the HP Pavilion in San Jose, California.
For this event, to avoid getting burned and to follow our post on the use of parlays we will be placing one large parlay on a variety of favourites at this event as well as 4 straight bets. We will begin here with the 2 other straight bets not mentioned in our early picks article posted earlier in the week.
First off, our statistical model has Strikeforce crossover and undefeated fighter, Lorenz Larkin defeating 4 fight UFC vet Francis Carmont. Realistically, this is a very difficult fight to call. Both fighters have had a lot of success lately, Carmont winning 9 straight over the last few years with an impressive 7 of those by way of submission or TKO. While Larkin is technically 13-0 and undefeated, he does have one KO defeat that was later overturned because his opponent, Mohammed Lawal tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. Lawal though, is probably of a higher caliber than anyone Carmont has fought so it makes the job of predicting this fight extremely difficult. When we look deeper into the numbers, Carmont has a significant height and reach advantage to Larkin (6’3″ vs 5’11” and 78″ vs 71.5″). What Larkin lacks in reach though, he makes up for in fighting ability with 3.4 strikes landed per minute and 67% takedown accuracy vs Carmont’s 2.7 strikes landed per minute and 45% takedown accuracy. A 1.5 unit bet on Larkin at 2.24 to 1 is where we decided to put our money for this fight.
Secondly, our model has Anthony Njokuani defeating Roger Bowling in the second fight of the Facebook prelims. Njokuani is 2-3 in the UFC since joining following UFC’s absorbtion of WEC and is coming off a loss to Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC on Fuel TV: Munoz vs Weidman in July of last year. Bowling, on the other hand, has had very limited success in his mma career so far. He seems to be able to defeat low level competition, but loses when facing opponents with any name value whatsoever. Bowling is another of the Strikeforce crossovers and realistically, he shouldn’t win this fight. Looking into the stats, Bowling is shorter, has a smaller reach, lands less strikes, absorbs more strikes and is less accurate with his takedowns. Realistically, there is little reason to believe Bowling can defeat Njokuani. Therefore, we placed a 1 unit bet on Njokuani at 1.64 to 1.
Other than that, our picks for the rest of the night are dominated by heavy favourites. As stated previously, we have Daniel Cormier defeating Frank Mir and at 1.25 to 1, we don’t see a lot of value in placing a straight bet. We have Jordan Mein defeating Matt Brown on 1 months rest and to kick off the main card. Mein sits at 1.33 to 1, so we have placed him in our parlay. Next we have Chad Mendes (who has gone relatively untested since losing to Aldo at UFC 142) defeating Darren Elkins at a paltry 1.16 to 1. Finally, we have Joseph Benavidez defeating Darren Uyenoyama at 1.2 to 1.
Because our model showed strong confidence in all of these outcomes (above 80%), the expected value of parlaying all the outcomes is much higher than simply placing single bets. Therefore, we placed a 1.5 unit bet on Cormier over Mir, Mein over Brown, Mendes over Elkins and Benavidez over Uyenoyama at 2.31 to 1.
Henderson over Melendez. 2 unit at 1.41 to 1
Thomson over Diaz. 1 unit at 2.66 to 1
Larkin over Carmont. 1.5 unit at 2.24 to 1
Njokuani over Bowling. 1 unit at 1.64 to 1
Cormier, Mein, Mendes, Benavidez over Mir, Brown, Elkins, Uyenoyama. 1.5 units at 2.31 to 1