UFC 160 is just over 2 weeks away, and we have already given our main event pick. The event goes down on Saturday, May 25 at 10pm ET. Now that the odds have been released for all the main card fights, we’re back to give you our predictions and show you where to put your money on this card.
Firstly, as we mentioned in our previous post, we are not placing a bet in the main event. At just 1.16 to 1, there is not a lot of value in betting on Velasquez. Even to win inside the distance, we can only get 1.25 to 1 which is way too little reward, even though our model has Velasquez as a serious favourite.
In the co-main event, heavy handed heavyweights, Mark Hunt and Junior Dos Santos square off. The fighters are opposite in terms of body structure, Hunt has been described as “like a fire hydrant,” while Dos Santos is tall and lean. They’re striking too is much different, Dos Santos throws crisp, technical strikes while Hunt strikes wildly, but both find a lot of success in the UFC’s heavyweight division. Hunt has been able to win 4 straight with 3 coming by way of TKO or KO. Prior to that, he lost 6 straight, but he was fighting the absolute best guys outside of the UFC including Alistair Overeem, Fedor Emelianenko and Josh Barnett. Dos Santos had won his first 9 UFC contests, 7 of which came by TKO or KO before losing his heavyweight championship to Cain Velasquez at UFC 155 in December, 2012. In terms of the stats, Hunt throws and absorbs more punches, but doesn’t attempt submissions and only succeeds with 53% of his takedowns (compared to 74% for Dos Santos). We feel that this fight is unlikely to go to the ground though. Our model has Dos Santos winning decisively. A straight bet only gets us 1.29 to 1, so we opted to place a 1.5 unit bet on Dos Santos to finish at 1.833 to 1.
In the fight prior to that, light heavyweights Glover Teixeira and James Te Huna will collide. Teixeira will be fighting just his fourth UFC fight, but he already holds a win over perennial contender “Rampage” Jackson. It has been almost 100 months since Teixeira has lost a fight and our model sees it as unlikely that Te Huna will be able to snap that streak. Te Huna has been able to win 4 straight, but he is more of a middle-upper tier light heavyweight, while Teixeira has been able to show he has the skills to challenge the very top guys. Since our model is over 90% accurate in light heavyweight fights and heavily favours Teixeira, we decided to place a 1.5 unit bet on Teixeira at 1.37 to 1.
To finish off the main card, our model has Gray Maynard taking his fight over TJ Grant as he looks to reclaim his top contender spot and Donald Cerrone defeating Strikeforce crossover KJ Noons. Our model is not particularly confident in the Gray Maynard victory and it is least accurate in lightweight fights so we will avoid placing a bet at the line of 1.5 being offered. With Cerrone over Noons, our model is a little more confident, but the odds are worse, so we will not be placing a bet on this fight either. We may reconsider placing this bet later on, but it will be updated in our final picks article.
Dos Santos to finish Hunt. 1.5 units at 1.833 to 1
Teixeira over Te Huna. 1.5 units at 1.37 to 1
Velasquez over Silva
Maynard over Grant
Cerrone over Noons
We will have our UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold up on Friday, the 17th and we will have our final picks for UFC 160 up by Friday, May 24th.
Here are the latest odds for UFC 160: