We already posted our first 3 picks for UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs Rockhold. We are back now to give you our pick in the last fight we can predict on the card, John Cholish vs Gleison Tibau. The main card action will begin at 9pm ET, live from Brazil, with the Fuel TV prelims beginning at 6 pm ET and a few fights on Facebook beginning at 4:30 pm ET.
In the last fight we can predict on the card, we have Gleison Tibau defeating John Cholish. Tibau is coming off an underwhelming split decision loss to Evan Dunham at UFC 156, while Cholish is coming off a decision loss to Danny Castillo. Our model has Tibau as a slight favourite. We decided however, to bet on the underdog, Cholish. The current line has Cholish at 2.92 to 1. In addition, our model is least accurate with lightweights and while we acknowledge that Cholish has not fought guys at the same level as the guys Tibau has been fighting, Cholish has been able to finish 7 of his 8 wins and has only lost twice in his career. Therefore, we are placing a 0.5 unit bet on Cholish at 2.92 to 1.
In addition, we have decided to place a 1 unit bet on Rafael Dos Anjos to defeat Evan Dunham at 1.588 to 1. We were on the fence before, but with the recent line movements, there is now enough value in Dos Anjos to justify placing a bet.
Rockhold over Belfort. 1.5 units at 1.87 to 1
Camozzi over Souza. 0.5 unit bet at 5.65 to 1
Dos Anjos over Dunham. 1 unit bet at 1.588 to 1
Cholish over Tibau. 0.5 units at 2.92 to 1
Here are the latest odds for UFC on FX 8: