UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva II Results

UFC 160 turned out to be a great night for The Fight Predictor, and more specifically, our new model. We were able to bring home a total profit of 4.07 units, bringing our new model’s profit out of the red to just over 2 units in 2 events. While our old model would have been 4-4 at the event, our new model was an impressive 6-2, bringing our overall accuracy up close to 80%, which is right where we expected it to be when we discussed the changes. One theme of the event was the now common spinning kicks that seem to be frequent in MMA. Five years ago, Cung Le was one of the few fighters who was using them, but now they seem to be a tool in many fighters arsenals.

In the main event tonight, Cain Velasquez was able to finish Antonio Bigfoot Silva even faster than the first time. In the rematch, Velasquez got the TKO win in 1:20 compared to 3:36 in their first battle. The victory by Cain completed the second leg of our second parlay and we profited 0.57 units.

The first round of Junior Dos Santos vs Mark Hunt saw Dos Santos use his technical striking to keep the wild Hunt at bay. In the second, Hunt clipped Dos Santos a couple times, so Dos Santos decided to take Hunt down and keep him down for the last minute or so in the fight. In general, the action in this fight was relatively slow with both fighters throwing relatively few punches. In the third, Dos Santos landed an unexpected and ridiculous wheel kick on Hunt to take the victory via TKO. We profited 1.25 units on our 1.5 unit bet for Dos Santos to finish.

Glover Teixeira showed how well rounded his MMA game is with a guillotine victory over James Te-Huna. The striking game was relatively even in round 1. Teixeira quickly got a takedown and while the fighters were standing up, Teixeira locked in the guillotine and didn’t let go. The Teixeira victory profits us 0.56 units on our 1.5 unit bet.

TJ Grant looked extremely impressive finishing Gray Maynard. The fight began with Maynard looking like he was winning the striking battle, landing some significant strikes on Grant. The tide turned quickly though after TJ Grant landed a couple solid punches knocking Maynard silly and allowing him to knock out “The Bully” with a whole bunch of punches. We had Maynard winning and this fight lost us 1 unit.

In Donald Cerrone vs UFC newcomer KJ Noons, Cerrone was able to control the action throughout. Round 1 saw both fighters primarily standing, but Cerrrone was able to get the better of Noons for the most part with a nice mix of punches and kicks. Round 2 saw Noons slow down significantly and Cerrone continue to mix up his offense nicely, even securing a takedown and landing some ground and pound. Round 3 was all Cerrone. He got Noons down early and essentially pounded on Noons for 5 full minutes. The judges got this one right, scoring it 30-27, 30-27 and 30-26 in favour of Cerrone. Our correct prediction in this one completed leg 1 of our Cerrone/Velasquez parlay.

The story (no pun intended) of Story vs Pyle was the relentless attack of Story and the submission game of Pyle. Story got a quick takedown in round 1 and managed to avoid a deep armbar attempt by Pyle. Story finished the round with a big knockdown securing him the points victory. Round 2 saw Story on top for the majority, but not doing much work overall. Pyle was clearly the more busy fighter which likely got him the round on 2 of 3 judges scorecards. Round 3 was very close, Pyle was definitely the less tired of the two and pushed the action more, but Story was able to finish the round on top and spent much of the round controlling Pyle against the cage. The judges must have scored this round for Pyle because he won the fight via split decision. This loss ruined the second leg of our first parlay and lost us 1 unit.

Max Holloway vs Dennis Bermudez began as all Holloway. Holloway landed multiple spinning kicks in the first round and also stopped 2 takedown attempts by Bermudez. Round 2 was very close with Holloway edging out Bermudez in the striking, but Bermudez getting a late takedown that likely secured him the round. The third was all Bermudez. Knowing he had to take the round home, Bermudez was hyper aggressive securing a couple takedowns and finishing the round raining down elbows on a grounded Holloway. This fight completed the first leg of our first parlay, but the parlay didn’t cash due to the Pyle victory noted above.

As our model predicted, George Roop was able to defeat Brian Bowles. Roop was able to utilize his reach advantage to outstrike Bowles in round 1, however he got clipped and went down late in the round, but was able to avoid being submitted by Bowles and took over in round 2. A stiff jab knocked down Bowles and Roop got on top and finished with his strikes. Roop was our lone underdog pick of the night and we profited 3.69 units on our 1.5 unit bet. The two major statistics that led to our correct prediction were Bowles’ 18 month layoff and Roop’s 6 inch height advantage.

Results

Dos Santos finishes Hunt. +1.25 units
Teixeira over Te-Huna. +0.56 units
Grant over Maynard. -1 unit
Roop over Bowles. +3.69 units
Parlay 1: -1 unit when Pyle defeated Story (won on Bermudez over Holloway)
Parlay 2: +0.57 units on Velasquez and Cerrone victories

Event Profit: 4.07 units
Bet Record: 4-2
Fight Record: 6-2
Return on bets: 54.3%

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2 thoughts on “UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva II Results

  1. This site is really cool. I’ve been looking for a data/statistical driven blog on UFC betting. I’ve been going to my library and on youtube trynna learn about statistics. I’d love to bet on UFC as a career. How big does intuition play in any of your picks? I could have told you that Jacare would beat that guy out regardless of your model. But, in fairness, your model is obviously making you money. What’s the best site to place bets on in your opinion?

  2. Thanks for the feedback, I’m glad you’re enjoying the content! Intuition is almost what we’re trying to avoid with the model. Essentially we’re trying to break everything down from a pure statistical/mathematical perspective. As you saw with Camozzi vs Souza, it’s not always perfect, but in a fight like Roop vs Bowles, we are able to find underdogs that win that nobody really expects. I place most of my bets on 5dimes, but that and sportbet have the same ownership I believe and sportbet generally offers more favourable odds. In the future, I plan to have open accounts on a bunch of different sites so I can bet on whichever offers the best odds.

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