UFC on Fuel TV 10: Nogueira vs Werdum is just a couple days away, taking place Saturday, June 8, 2013 from Fortaleza, Brazil. The Facebook prelims begin at 4:30pm ET with the main card beginning at 8pm ET. According to our model, there is boat loads of value on this card with the outcomes in 5 of the 6 fights we are able to predict being the underdog winning. We already posted our early picks so let’s get to the rest of this relatively weak (in terms of talent, not value) card.
The main event of the undercard features Brazilian Rafael Asuncao fighting England’s Vaughn Lee. It is unlikely based on Lee’s history that this fight goes the full distance. Lee has finished or been finished in 18 of his 22 career fights. He sits at 2-2 since joining the UFC back in November, 2011. Asuncao, on the other hand, sits at 3-1 in his UFC career and has finished 11 of his 18 career fights. Prior to his current 3 fight win streak, Asuncao was 1-3 in the featherweight division through the WEC, UFC merger. The favourite in this one, according to our model is Lee, but only by a slight margin. Luckily, he is a 3.8 to 1 underdog. In this event, we have decided to relax our betting a little bit to account for the fact that most of the fights we are betting on have limited statistical background. Therefore, we placed a 0.5 unit bet on Lee at 3.8 to 1.
In the co-main event of the undercard, we have Derek Brunson defeating Ronny Markes. Brunson entered the UFC with a huge win over perennial upper-tier middleweight, Chris Leben. Make no mistake about this prediction though, if Brunson can’t smother Markes on the ground like he was able to with Leben, he has little chance of taking this fight. Brunson’s only career losses were a split decision loss to Kendall Grove, and a KO loss to Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, who absolutely dominated Chris Camozzi in his UFC debut a couple weeks ago. Markes, on the other hand, has just 1 career loss and is 3-0 so far in his UFC career including a surprising upset victory over Aaron Simpson in his UFC debut in April, 2011. Following in our strategy to bet a little less on these underdogs, we placed a 0.5 unit bet on Brunson at 3.11 to 1.
In our final pick of the card, we have Japanese fighter, Mizuto Hirota defeating the Brazilian Rodrigo Damm. Our model has Hirota as a relatively big favourite, with 2 major factors being the fact that Hirota has never missed a takedown (at least in the fights with recorded stats, and that is a relatively small sample). In addition, Damm has been knocked out 3 times vs none for Hirota. Finally, Hirota has won 70% of his fights overall, while Damm has won just 62.5%. Neither of these numbers is particularly impressive, but advantage to Hirota. Since Hirota is the underdog, we placed a 1 unit bet at 2.48 to 1.
Werdum over Nogueira. No bet
Silva over Cavalcante. 1.5 unit bet at 2.75 to 1
High over Silva. 1.5 unit bet at 4.36 to 1
Lee over Asuncao. 0.5 unit bet at 3.8 to 1
Brunson over Markes. 0.5 unit bet at 3.11 to 1
Hirota over Damm. 1 unit bet at 2.48 to 1
Here are the latest UFC on Fuel TV 10 odds: