UFC on Fuel TV 10: Nogueira vs Werdum Results

For the UFC, the night was special as a record-setting 7 submissions were completed on the card. The fact that many fights ended early left the UFC scrambling to fill the time which meant many repeated fights for the viewers of the card.

In his return from suspension and in the lone bet we won on the night, Thiago Silva was able to knockout Rafael Cavalcante in the first round of their match-up, picking up the double bonus in the process with both fight of the night and knockout of the night. The victory by Silva won us a nice profit of 2.63 units on our 1.5 unit bet.

In addition to the Silva victory, we correctly predicted Fabricio Werdum would defeat and older, more beat up Antonio Nogueira in the main event. Werdum was able to make that prediction come true by taking down and submitting Nogueira in the second round. Unfortunately, because our model only had Werdum as a slight favourite and the odds on him weren’t very favourable, we didn’t place a bet so this correct pick didn’t earn us any money.

Two of our other picks were disappointing submission losses. Jason High looked pretty decent on the feet, but was completely dominated on the ground and lost via triangle armbar to Erick Silva. Vaughn Lee also lost via submission in the second round this time to Rafael Asuncao. In total, we lost 2 units on these two fights.

Finally, in the closest match-up we had a bet on on the night, Mizuto Hirota lost to Rodrigo Damm via split decision. In a fight that was relatively light on the action (kind of reminded us of Olympic Tae Kwan Do with each fighter darting in for attacks then backing off), Damm was able to outstrike Hirota for the majority of the contest. The only bright spot for Hirota was the second round when he was able to land a few decent combinations on Damm. The judges got it right though when they awarded the contest Damm (29-28, 28-29, 29-28). We 1 unit on this fight.


Werdum defeated Nogueira via second round submission. Correct pick, but no bet.
Silva defeated Cavalcante. Correct pick profit 2.63 units.
Silva defeated High. Wrong pick loss of 1.5 units.
Asuncao defeated Lee. Wrong pick loss of 0.5 units.
Damm defeated Hirota. Wrong pick loss of 1 unit.

Event Profit: -0.37 units
Event Return: -8.2%
Correct Picks: 2-3
Correct Bets: 1-3

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2 thoughts on “UFC on Fuel TV 10: Nogueira vs Werdum Results

  1. You guys were spot on with f. werdum and t. silva winning (I agreed 100% with your models predictions). I had Silva beating High (new silvas ground game too much for High), so I went 3 for 3 since I only bet on those three fights 🙂

    Keep up the good work. Love the blog.

  2. Awesome! Glad to hear its working well for you. You’re doing exactly what we hope our followers do. Taking the model output/our selections based on that output, applying some logic and making your own selections.

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