UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson Results

UFC 161 went down tonight from the MTS Centre in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The preliminary card featured tons of grappling. Some of which was exciting (Figueroa vs Delorme), some of which was incredibly boring (Shields vs Woodley). The fighters were once again reminded that you can’t leave fights in the judges hands as there were at least 3 or 4 questionable decisions on the undercard. The Pague vs Jabouin decision especially hurt our bottom line as the result of that fight was a massive 8 unit swing (-1.5 for loss, +5.4 for win). The main card started out with a bang, then slowed down for Davis vs Sexton and ground to a halt with Jimmo vs Pokrajac. Overall, it was a relatively weak night of fights and a very weak night for the fight predictor.

For the main event, we decided to add an extra unit on Hendo with the big swing up to 2.45, making our overall bet 2 units at 2.25 to 1.add an extra unit on Hendo. After a night with little excitement and terrible betting results, we were hoping for a big victory by Henderson to keep us from falling far into the red. The fight ended up being extremely close with Henderson avoiding takedowns and the two having a pretty even striking battle. Rashad definitely took the third round with a striking advantage, but the first two rounds were anyones guess. The judges gave Rashad the split decision victory. We lost 2 units on this fight.

In the co-main event, we had a 1 unit bet on Roy Nelson to defeat Stipe Miocic at 1.44 to 1. The crowd was absolutely dead to start this fight due to the Jimmo vs Pokrajac snoozefest which preceded it. Nelson/Miocic didn’t pick them up too much. Miocic used technical striking and great movement to mitigate the majority of Nelson’s strength(s) (the wild overhand right). We lose 1 unit on this fight.

Opening the pay-per-view portion of the card was Pat Barry vs Shawn Jordan. We placed a 1.5 unit bet on Pat Barry at 1.87 to 1. It didn’t take Jordan very long to finish Barry. The first exchange saw Barry land a decent right hand, but the second saw Jordan land a punch which staggered Barry. Jordan jumped on the opportunity and managed to finish Barry with strikes. We lost 1.5 units on this fight.

In the main event of the FX card, we took Tyron Woodley to defeat Jake Shields with 1 unit at 1.58 to 1. Woodley was able to showcase his takedown defense in the first round as well as his incredible size and speed. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to do much damage in the round which had limited action overall. The second round was similar. Basically just Shields trying to get the takedown and Woodley avoiding. Again in the third round, there was a ton of relatively even grappling, but Woodley was able to land some shots on the feet. In the most boring fight of the night (Jake Shields makes everyone boring), Jake Shields beats Tyron Woodley via split decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28). We lose 1 unit on this one.

With the late and huge swing in odds, we decided to place a 1.5 unit bet on Sean Pierson at 2.2 to 1. Our model had him as a slight favourite, and with the shift in lines, we felt there was a major upside to betting on him. The first round was pretty even, but Pierson was able to maintain more control and land the more effective strikes when they were on their feet. In round 2, Pierson continued to be the better man on the feet. He landed a number of good strikes on the feet, but Roberston was able to get the takedown and get top position and maintain it to the end of the round. In the third, Robertson landed some serious shots, knocking Pierson down and quickly getting on top. Robertson maintained his top position for almost the entire round with Pierson managing to wriggle free at the end of the round and land a couple G&P shots to finish the fight (and possibly stop the 10-8 round). The judges scored in 29-28, 29-28, 28-28 in favour of Pierson. We profit 1.8 units.

In the opener of the prelims, we had Edwin Figueroa defeating Roland Delorme with a 2 unit bet at 2.46 to 1. This one was mostly a grappling match with Delorme looking incredible on the ground and likely taking the first. It was more of the same in the second, but with Figueroa getting a little more offense in and having a period of significant ground and pound. The third was similar, but finished off with Figueroa ground and pounding Delorme. All 3 judges scored the fight 29-28 Delorme. We lost 2 units on this fight.

We had Dustin Pague defeating Yves Jabouin to kick off the card at 3.65 to 1. Pague managed to get the mount for over half of round 2, as well as constantly attacking from his back with close submissions in round 1. Round 3 saw Pague in the mount for a short period, but mostly attacking from his back. Overall, Jabouin did not land very much offense even though he was on top most of the fight. In our opinion, the judges got it wrong in giving him a split decision victory. We lost our 1.5 unit bet on Jabouin.


Evans over Henderson. Loss of 2 units.
Miocic over Nelson. Loss of 1 unit.
Jordan over Barry. Loss of 1.5 units
Shields over Woodley. Loss of 1 unit.
Pierson over Robertson. Profit of 1.8 units.
Delorme over Figueroa. Loss of 2 units.
Jabouin over Pague. Loss of 1.5 units.

Event Profit: -7.2 units

Next event is UFC 162 where Anderson “The Spider” Silva takes on Chris Weidman on July 6, 2013.

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2 thoughts on “UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson Results

  1. No, haven’t seen that one. Some pretty interesting insights there though, thanks for posting. I feel like this was more of a freak night than huge problems with the model. I have adjusted some things to hopefully do better in the future. At UFC 162 there’s a bunch of fights to predict and I’ll keep the insights from that blog post in mind and I’m likely going to be more conservative with the bets.

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