UFC 162 goes down in under a week from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will start at 10pm ET with the prelims at 8pm on FX and 7pm on Facebook. The main event will see the middleweight champ and widely rated pound for pound best Anderson Silva taking on challenger Chris Weidman. We already predicted the main event in an early post and we’re back to finish our predictions for the main card. Keep in mind for our bets that we are using a much more conservative approach following a couple recent disappointing performances.
In the co-main event of the night, Frankie Edgar will be taking on Charles Oliveira. Edgar comes off 3 straight losses, 2 of which decision losses to lightweight champ, Benson Henderson followed up by another decision loss to featherweight champ, Jose Aldo. Oliveira comes off a KO loss to long time upper tier featherweight, Cub Swanson. Oliveira is one of the taller featherweight competitors, standing 5’10” and utilizes his black belt jiu jitsu well inside the octagon with all 4 of his octagon wins coming by submission. Edgar was a relatively small lightweight who was quick enough to avoid damage from larger guys like Gray Maynard, but seems to be more at home as a featherweight. The numbers on these two guys are pretty close, but Oliveira lands more strikes at a higher accuracy than Edgar. In terms of absorbing strikes, Oliveira absorbs more and is much worse at defending strikes than Edgar. Both fighters only land about 35% of their approximately 2.5 takedowns per fight and defend around 60% of takedowns against. One big difference though, as expected based on their historical wins, is that Oliveira attemps over 3 submissions per minute while Edgar attempts just 0.35. Our model has Edgar as a slight favourite, but at the current betting lines, we don’t see any value in placing a bet.
Our second bet of the night will be on Roger Gracie to defeat Tim Kennedy. Gracies sits at 2.33 to 1, and we have him as a heavy favourite in our model. Both men’s contracts were continued from Zuffa’s purchase of Strikeforce, and both will be making their UFC debuts. Fortunately, FightMetric recorded stats from the majority of Strikeforce fights so we are able to make a prediction for this light heavyweight battle. Kennedy managed to earn 2 Strikeforce middleweight title shots, losing in both attempts to Jacare Souza and Luke Rockhold. He was able to finish his Strikeforce career with a submission victory over Trevor Smith in Strikeforce’s final event in January of this year. Gracie is an incredibly well decorated Brazilian Jiu Jitsu competitor with multiple world championship gold and silver medals. In the MMA game, he is 6-1 with 5 wins via submission and 4 wins in Strikeforce. Gracie stands 5 inches taller than Kennedy and has a 5 inch reach advantage, which will likely come into play in Gracie’s top level submission game. Gracie is not a particularly good striker, but he absorbs few strikes, with a defense percentage of 70%. As a heavy favourite, and standing at 2.33 to 1, we feel there is tons of value in Gracie so he is our second bet of the night.
Prior to this fight is the middleweight meeting between Tim Boetsch and Mark Munoz. Munoz is the favourite in this fight, and our model agrees. At 1.8 to 1, and a slight favourite in our model, we feel there is little value in placing a bet on Munoz unless the line shifts heavily close to fight time. For now, we will avoid placing a bet, but it is definitely a possibility that if the line shifts sharply leading up to the fight that we could place a bet on Munoz to take the W.
To kick of the main card, Dennis Siver takes on Cub Swanson in the featherweight division. According to the odds, Swanson should win this fight handily, he currently sits at 1.46 to 1. Our model agrees, having Swanson as the significant favourite. Like the fight between Munoz and Boetsch, we feel there is not enough value to justify betting on Swanson when he is heavily favoured by the bookies.
Weidman over Silva. 2 units at 3.34 to 1
Gracie over Kennedy. 2 units at 2.33 to 1
Edgar over Oliveira.
Munoz over Boetsch.
Swanson over Siver.
As always, here are the latest odds from bestfightodds.com