UFC 163 is just a couple weeks away with UFC on Fox 8: Johnson vs Moraga in the interim. Unfortunately, we cannot predict the main event of that event due to Moraga’s limited time in the octagon so we will be providing our prediction and bet for Jose Aldo vs “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung at UFC 163 instead. UFC on Fox 8 goes down Saturday, July 27, 2013 from the Key Arena in Seattle, Washington and UFC 163 goes down the following Saturday, August 3 from the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. UFC 163 will look to top the 8 submission victories attained at UFC on Fuel TV: Nogeuira vs Werdum back in June of this year. The one major thing we took away from the last few UFC events in Brazil is that Brazilians perform better in their home country than in foreign countries (some of this may be attributed to favourable judging). Adding this to our model shows that a Brazilian fighting a non-Brazilian in Brazil has an increased chance of winning of 19%. Obviously this factors into our main event prediction with Brazilian Jose Aldo fighting Korean Chan Sung Jung.
UFC Featherweight champ, Jose Aldo comes into the UFC 163 contest as the fourth ranked UFC pound for pound fighter. He has been nearly undefeated in his 9 year fighting career with his lone loss coming to Luciano Azevedo back in November, 2005. Aldo’s 12 straight wins in the WEC/UFC bring him close to the record of 16 held by Anderson Silva. Of those 12 wins, an impressive 6 have been title defenses, including victories over number 1 featherweight fighter Chad Mendes and number 3 ranked Frankie Edgar. As a 26 year old, Aldo already has little left to prove with few remaining competitors in the featherweight division. Superfights are likely a reality of his future with a potential Benson Henderson fight on the horizon.
Challenger, Chan Sung Jung is well known for his 2010 fight of the year performance, a split decision loss to Leonard Garcia. Since being absorbed into the UFC with Zuffa’s purchase of WEC, Jung has gone on a nice little run with 3 straight victories over the aforementioned Garcia, a KO win over Mark Hominick and a submission victory over #7 featherweight, Dustin Poirier. Jung’s biggest assets are his chin and his determination, as demonstrated in the first Garcia fight, he has no willingness to give up regardless of the punishment he absorbs.
Tale of the Tape
* SLPM – significant strikes landed per minute
** SAPM – significant strikes absorbed per minute
*** TD Acc – Takedown accuracy percent
**** TD Def – Percentage of takedowns defended
Immediately jumping out at us is Jung’s SAPM number. Absorbing 3.77 significant strikes per minute is not a good way to win fights or have a lasting career. He will need to do a better job of avoiding the power of Aldo than he has done in some of his past fights, or he will quickly be separated from his senses. In terms of height, reach and age, there is little to choose from between the two. Jung’s 2 inch reach advantage will likely have little affect on the outcome of this fight. Both fighters score incredibly high on takedowns defended with Jung defending every takedown recorded statistically and Aldo defending 92% of takedowns attempted against him (with a higher caliber of opponent facing Aldo).
The overall record speaks volumes about Aldo’s years of dominance and Jung’s recent resurgence. We cannot forget while analyzing this fight that Jung was no more than a middle of the pack featherweight prior to joining the UFC when he went 1-3 for Sengoku and the WEC. Stylistically, Jung obviously favours the submission over the knockout whereas the champ, Aldo favours the KO. Aldo will obviously not be an easy target for Jung to submit, being 22-1 in his career with just a single decision loss in 2005.
Our model has Aldo as a very strong favourite in this fight. We believe Jung has the chin to stand and trade with Aldo for 5 rounds and we see the possibility of this fight ending up on the ground as remote. In addition, based on his recent history and the fact that of the fights we have observed, 56% of featherweight fights have gone to decision, we decided to bet on Aldo to take the decision victory in this one. We got in on this bet at a tantalizing 4.47 to 1.
Aldo over Jung via Decision. 1 unit at 4.47 to 1
Here are the latest UFC 163 odds from BestFightOdds.com: