UFC Fight Night 26 went down tonight from the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. It was a great night for the Fight Predictor! We went 4-2 on our bets for a total profit of 4.48 units.
In our first bet of the night, we had Manvel Gamburyan to defeat Cole Miller at 2.05 to 1. As fight time approached, the line on Gamburyan fell to as low as 1.66 to 1 on some sports books. The first round was relatively light on action, the main exclamation point was the big takedown landed by Gamburyan. He was able to land some ground and point from Miller’s guard. The round finished with a questionable elbow by Miller, but after a short delay, Gamburyan was able to continue into round 2. Round 2 saw Gamburyan using relentless takedown attempts to keep Miller against the cage for the vast majority. Gamburyan did take some damage from the elbows against the cage which opened up a decent gash on the right side of the back of his head. The third round was more of the same with a bit more stand up, which appeared relatively even, leading to a Gamburyan takedown. Gamburyan maitained the top position until the end of the round. The relentless takedown attempts and successes by Gamburyan proved to be the difference as he took a decision victory. The victory by Gamburyan gives us a profit of 2.1 units.
Our second bet of the night was Daniel Pineda to defeat Diego Brandao in the featherweight division. We had a 2 unit bet on Pineda at 3.12 to 1. These guys came out swinging with bad intentions! Brandao caught Pineda with several great strikes in the first round and it was impressive Pineda was still standing. Round 2 saw much more ground action with Brandao getting a takedown, but Pineda flipping it over and ending up in mount. Pineda pounded on Brandao from top position for almost 3 minutes of the round. The third round saw 2 tired men exhcanging wild strikes and Brandao landing takedown after takedown (although he didn’t do much damage once he got Pineda on the ground). An entertaining fight went to the cards and Brandao took the decision 29-28. The Brandao victory was a 2 unit loss for us.
Our third bet of the night was the opener on the main card; 2 units at 3.1 to 1 on Michael Johnson to defeat Joe Lauzon. In the first round, Johnson showed off some impressive striking, knocking down Lauzon once and also landing plenty of significant strikes. In round 2, Johnson appeared to tire and both men were landing throughout. The difference maker was a late takedown and some ground and pound for Johnson. Round 3 was very similar to round 1 with Johnson ducking and weaving and landing stiff combinations and Lauzon standing directly in front of him. The judges scored the fight 30-27, 30-27 and 30-25 (must have been 10-8 happy?). The Johnson victory gets us a 4.2 unit profit.
In our last underdog pick of the night we had Iura Alcantara over Urijah Faber. Unfortunately for our bet, only the first 2:30 appeared to go Alcantara’s way as for the remainder of the fight, Faber used his wrestling and top control to smother the less experienced competitor. It was literally Faber on top raining down punches and elbows for 2.5 full rounds. The judges scored the obvious decision in favour of Faber and we lose 2 units.
In the co-main event, instead of betting on one of Overeem or Browne, we decided to take advantage of the bloated under 1.5 rounds line which sat at 1.71 to 1. We did have Overeem winning coming into the fight, but the money line made a bet on Overeem too risky. We don’t plan on betting on Overeem in the near future after he lost in the disastrous 3rd round of a fight he was dominating when he fought Antonio Silva. The early going of this fight was all Overeem. He caught Browne multiple times with huge strikes, but seemed to wear himself out going for the finish, as so often happens in the heavyweight division. Browne was able to capitalize on a tired Overeem, knocking Overeem down with a front kick and pounding on him while he was on the ground. Our bet on under 1.5 rounds wins us 1.07 units.
In the main event, we bet on Chael Sonnen to defeat Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. The odds on Sonnen climbed way up from when we originally placed our bet at 1.74 to 1 to 2.44 to 1. Chael’s losses to Anderson Silva and Jon Jones may have caused people to forget how effective his wrestling is in the octagon. The fight began with Chael on top and ended up with Chael on the bottom with a guillotine choke locked in. The big win by Sonnen profits us 1.11 units.
Sonnen over Rua via first round submission. Profit of 1.11 units.
Under 1.5 rounds Overeem vs Browne. Profit of 1.07 units.
Faber over Alcantara via unanimous decision. Loss of 2 units.
Johnson over Lauzon via unanimous decision. Profit of 4.2 units.
Brandao over Pineda via unanimous decision. Loss of 2 units.
Gamburyan over Miller via unanimous decision. Profit of 2.1 units.
Bet Record: 4-2
Profit: 4.48 units
Browne over Overeem via first round TKO.
Brown over Pyle via first round KO.
Howard over Hall via split decision.
McDonald over Pickett via second round submission.
McGregor over Holloway via unanimous decision.
Siler over Brown via first round KO.
St Preux over Donovan via 1st round KO.
Vick over Nijem via 1st round guillotine.
Next up is UFC Fight Night 27: Condit vs Kampmann II on Wednesday, August 28 followed by UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis II on Saturday, August 31.