After a huge night yesterday at UFC Fight Night 26: Sonnen vs Rua, we’re back to bring you our first two picks for UFC Fight Night 27: Condit vs Kampmann II. The fight card is the first Wednesday night show for the UFC on Fox Sports 1 and will go down on August 28 from the Banker’s Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The card features 3 TUF 17 alumnus in winner, Kelvin Gastelum, Bubba McDaniel and Dylan Andrews. Unfortunately, we cannot predict any of their fights as we require 3 recorded fights in Fightmetric stats before we can make use of the numbers.
In the main event, in a rematch of a fight from over 4 years ago, Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann takes on Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit. Since the last match-up, Kampmann has gone 5-4 and Condit has gone 5-2, with his only losses to the two men who will be facing off for the belt in November, champ Georges St-Pierre and challenger Johny Hendricks. Kampmann also suffered a loss to Johny Hendricks, but also lost to Diego Sanchez, Jake Shields, Paul Daley and Nate Marquardt. Condit has the height and reach advantage in this match-up, standing 6’2″ and possessing a 76″ reach compared to Kampmann at 6’0″ and 72″. The striking stats don’t favour either man too strongly. Kampmann lands more (3.27 per minute to 2.96 per minute) at a slightly higher accuracy (43% to 40%), but also absorbs quite a few more (2.88 per minute to 2.24 per minute). Both guys possess similar numbers of knockouts and submissions (a sign of well roundedness in mma), with Condit having 13 of each and Kampmann having 8 knockouts and 7 submissions. One important factor that goes into our analysis that has a big bearing on this match-up however is method of loss. Kampmann has 4 knockout losses, a very high number for a UFC welterweight. Condit, on the other hand, has never lost by knockout, he only has 3 submission losses. Realistically, a knockout loss is much more damaging to the body over time, especially when it happens repeatedly when compared to a submission loss. So in terms of method of prior loss, Condit has a big edge. We see Condit taking a decisive victory over Kampmann in this one and our model agrees with our analysis. Since Condit pays off less than 1.5 to 1, we have decided to add it to a parlay with our pick in the co-main event.
The co-main event at Fight Night 27 will be Donald Cerrone taking on Rafael Dos Anjos in the lightweight division. Cerrone’s is a top tier lightweight, defeating all opponents he’s faced over the last 3 years except Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis who both went on to challenge for Benson Henderson’s title. Dos Anjos has also had a lot of recent success, racking up 4 straight over middle tier lightweights. Cerrone will be a huge step up in competition for Dos Anjos and we, and our model feel that he will be unable to keep his win streak going. Dos Anjos is not a particularly good offensive striker, according to the stats, landing just 35% of his significant strikes, he is however, pretty good in his striking defense, defending 71% of strikes attempted against. Dos Anjos is similar in his takedowns, good defensively and not particularly good offensively, landing just 36%, but defending 76%. Cerrone tends to strike with reckless abandon, landing 3.93 strikes per minute and absorbing 3.77. He also lands half his takedown attempts and attempts 2.19 submissions per fight, well above average. We see Cerrone as a big favourite in this fight. Our first bet for this card will be a 1.5 unit parlay at 2.40 to 1.
Condit and Cerrone to defeat Kampmann and Dos Anjos. 1.5 units at 2.40 to 1.
Going to be a busy couple of weeks for us with UFC Fight Night 27 on August 28, UFC 164 on Saturday, August 31 and UFC Fight Night 28 on Wednesday, September 4. Stay tuned using our channels below!