UFC Fight Night 27 will kick off a stretch of 3 UFC events in 8 days, likely the busiest the UFC calendar has ever been. We already gave you our 2 picks for the main card and we’re back now with our model’s remaining 3 picks for the night. The main card goes down at 8pm ET on Wednesday, August 28 from the Banker’s Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Fox Sports 2 card begins at 6pm ET and the Facebook prelims start at 5pm ET.
The first of our remaining picks will be the second fight of the main card. In the bantamweight division, Erik Perez takes on Takeya Mizugaki. Before even diving into this fight further, we should consider the implications of this fight. Erik Perez is a Mexican-born UFC fighter, with 3 straight finishes since debuting in the UFC in June, 2012. The UFC has ambitions of breaking into Mexico, as of now it is sort of an untapped market for the promotion. Is it likely they would be pairing Erik Perez up with someone he is unlikely to defeat? Not a chance! Mizugaki is a middle of the road bantamweight for the UFC with a WEC/UFC record just above .500 at 6-5. He does however, have the ability to go the distance with some good competition, losing just one of those 5 within the distance. Our model has Perez as a heavy favourite and there is nothing that stands out to us about this bout that would lead us to bet otherwise. Therefore, we placed a 1.5 unit bet at 1.65 to 1. (We should not as well, that in recorded fights, Erik Perez lands 7.96 significant strikes per minute which is close to double what other top guys land, but keep in mind he only has about 10 minutes worth of stats over 3 fights so far)
Next up, in the second fight of the Fox Sports 2 card, we have Hatsu Hioki slightly edging out Darren Elkins in our model. At the current odds of 1.72 to 1 though, slightly edging out his opponent is not enough for us to place a bet on Hioki. Elkins has been on a decent role as of late, going 6-2 in UFC competition with his only losses coming to top featherweight Chad Mendes and solid prospect, Charles Oliveira. He has managed to get finishes in just 2 of those victories however. Hioki was a top Japanese featherweight for many years before joining the UFC in October, 2011. His UFC performances to date have not been quite what many people envisioned for the former Sengoku featherweight champ, going 2-2 and losing his last 2 to Ricardo Lamas and (new featherweight) Clay Guida. Elkins lands 3.06 significant strikes per minute to Hioki’s 2.63. Hioki is more accurate with his strikes though, landing at 45% to Elkins 33%. Elkins also lands more takedowns, but less efficiently (2.51 at 39% to 2.20 at 52%).
Finally, in the welterweight division, James Head takes on Jason High. Head enters his fifth UFC fight with a 2-2 record in the promotion and 1 submission finish. High will be going into his third UFC fight, losing his prior 2, but with 3 straight Strikeforce wins sandwiched between the 2 UFC losses. Head has a dramatic height advantage in this fight at 6’1″ tall compared to 5’8″ for High. The height advantage doesn’t translate to reach though, both competitors sport 73″ in length. High’s in fight stats are downright terrible. He lands just 0.84 strikes per recorded minute, 0.74 takedowns per fight at 40% accuracy. Head lands many more strikes at 2.88 per minute, but he also absorbs 3.23 per minute, which leads us to believe he goes for additional offense at the expense of lowering his defenses. He has also landed 100% of his takedowns, the problem with that number is he has only ever successfully landed 1 takedown. Realistically, the statistical weirdness makes this fight basically unbettable. Our model does have High as a significant favourite, but it also had him as a favourite over Erick Silva and he got smoked in that one.
Condit and Cerrone to defeat Kampmann and Dos Anjos. 1.5 units at 2.40 to 1.
Perez over Mizugaki. 1.5 units at 1.65 to 1.
Hioki over Elkins
High over Head
Here are the best odds for UFC Fight Night 27: