Tonight was a very disappointing night for The Fight Predictor. After doing great at UFC Fight Night 26: Sonnen vs Rua, earning a profit of 4.48 units, we lost every bet at UFC Fight Night 27: Condit vs Kampmann II. The total loss was only 4 units however, so over the last 2 events, we are still slightly profitable.
In the main event, as the second leg of the Cerrone parlay, we had Carlos Condit to defeat Martin Kampmann. In addition to the failed parlay bet, we placed a 1 unit bet at 2.7 to 1 on the fight not going longer than 2.5 rounds. The first round was the best one for Kampmann. He took Condit down early and stayed on top for most of the round. Round 2 saw Condit find his range and land punches in bunches. In round 3, Condit continued to land the vast majority of the strikes, bloodying up Kampmann. Round 4 saw Condit find the finish with punches and knees delivered to Kampmann. We lost 1.5 units on our failed parlay and another unit on the fight going longer than 2.5 rounds.
In our fourth pick of the night and the first leg of our parlay with Cerrone and Condit. The pick was Cerrone over Dos Anjos. Round 1 saw Dos Anjos land a right hook dropping Cerrone and allowing him to land a takedown on the woozy Cerrone. Round 2 was more even with each man landing a takedown, but both struggling to do damage on the ground. Round 3 was more Cerrone, he landed multiple combinations throughout, but still took some damage from a very game Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos took the decision win 29-28 from all three judges. The decision cost us 1.5 units.
In our first bet of the night, we had a 1.5 unit bet on Erik Perez to defeat Takeya Mizugaki at 1.65 to 1. The first round saw Perez pressing the action and landing multiple takedowns. He was on the bottom at one point, but for the most part Perez was controlling Mizugaki. The second and third round were incredibly even, we had the fight 29-28 for Mizugaki. 2 of 3 judges saw the fight the same way giving Mizugaki a split decision victory and costing us 1.5 units.
Our second pick of the night was Hatsu Hioki to defeat Darren Elkins. The first round was almost all Hioki as he took it to Elkins mostly on the feet. The second round saw a lot more offense from Elkins, spending much of the round on top of Hioki. In the third, Elkins managed to get an early takedown. He was able to maintain the position for the duration of the round, pounding on Hioki while he pushed him up against the cage. All 3 judges scored the fight 29-28 for Darren Elkins. This fight brought our predictions record to 1-1 on the night.
In our first pick of the night, we correctly predicted Jason High was going to defeat James Head. High made us look great, securing a quick first round guillotine to take home the submission win.
Condit defeats Kampmann via 4th round TKO. We lose 1 unit on fight being under 2.5 rounds
Dos Anjos defeats Cerrone via decision (29-28 x3). We lose our 1.5 unit parlay bet
Mizugaki defeats Perez via split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28). We lose 1.5 units
Elkins over Hioki via decision (29-28 x 3)
High over Head via first round submission. Correct Pick
Gastelum over Melancon via first round submission
McGee over Whittaker via split decision (27-30, 30-27, 29-28)
Andrews over Abedi via third round knockout
Thatch over Edwards via first round TKO
Cummings over Alloway via first round submission
Bowling and Trujillo fight to a second round draw after Trujillo lands illegal knee