UFC 164 is just around the corner and we’re back to provide our final pick for the event. The card goes down this Saturday, August 31 from the BMO Harris Bradley Centre in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. We already provided our main card predictions for the event. We added another bet in the mean time and that’s a 1.5 unit bet on Vera at 1.92 to 1 to defeat Ben Rothwell. The fights begin at 6:30pm ET on Facebook with the early prelims on Fox Sports 1 at 8pm ET and the main card starting at 10pm ET on pay-per-view.
Our last pick for the event will be a fight in the lightweight division between Jamie Varner and Gleison Tibau. The betting line for this fight is relatively even, with Varner sitting around 1.72 and Tibau sitting around 2.20. In terms of height and reach, Varner stands 5’8″ with a reach of 71.5″ and Tibau stands 5’10” with a reach of 71.0″. Realistically, the height and reach gap is small enough that it won’t have a major effect on the outcome of this match-up. Tibau is 3-2 over his last 5, going 2-2 in decisions and 1 submission win. Varner is 4-1 over his last 5 with 2 TKO wins, a submission win and loss and a split decision win. The stats seem to indicate the striking game favours Varner. He lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.58. Tibau lands a much lower 1.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.14. Any time a fighter absorbs more strikes than they land, it is a very bad sign. The grappling game favours Tibau. He lands 4.66 takedowns per fight to Varner’s 4.04. In addition, Tibau stops 93% of takedowns attempted against, while Varner stops just 66%. Even with the grappling stats difference, we have Varner as a big time favourite in this one. At 1.72 to 1, we’re still getting a decent return for placing the bet too. We placed a 1.5 unit bet on Varner at 1.72 to 1.
In addition to this bet, there are a couple fights with odds we feel are too good to pass up even without our model being able to do the prediction. In the heavyweight division, Soa Palelei sits at 2.7 to 1 against Nikita Krylov. We feel this number is way out of wack for two relatively unproven heavyweight prospects (and we use the term prospect lightly). We placed a 1 unit bet on Palelei at 2.7 to 1.
The second fight where we really like the odds is in the flyweight division. Louis Gaudinot sits at 2.49 to 1 to defeat Tim Elliot. Gaudinot is the man who last defeated John Lineker, who has looked unstoppable in the contests following that loss. We feel at current odds, there’s tons of value in Gaudinot. Therefore, we placed a 1 unit bet on Gaudinot at 2.49 to 1.
Henderson over Pettis. 1.5 units at 1.91 to 1
Barnett and Mendes over Mir and Guida. 1.5 units at 1.96 to 1
Vera over Rothwell. 1.5 units at 1.92 to 1
Varner over Tibau. 1.5 units at 1.72 to 1
Palelei over Krylov. 1 unit at 2.70 to 1
Gaudinot over Elliot. 1 unit at 2.49 to 1
Koch over Poirier
Here are the best odds for UFC 164: