UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis II went down tonight from the BMO Harris Bradley Centre in Milwaukee, Wisonsin. It turned out to be a great night of fights between a bunch of big name fighters. Unfortunately for us, we came out in the red, but we’ll be back with better predictions going forward.
In the main event, we had a 1.5 unit bet on Benson Henderson to retain his lightweight championship vs Anthony Pettis. To the surprise of many, Pettis was able to lock up an arm bar in the first round and taking home the submission victory. We lost 1.5 units on the fight.
Our fifth bet of the night was Barnett and Mendes to defeat Mir and Guida. Barnett knocked Mir out in an exciting and fast paced first round (especially for the heavyweight division). It took Mendes just over 2 rounds to do the same thing to a very game Clay Guida. Our parly bet cashed and we profit 1.44 units.
In our fourth bet of the night, Brandon Vera looked to have control over Ben Rothwell for the first 2 rounds. Suddenly in the third, Rothwell “Guida’d” up bouncing all over the place and getting the finish of Vera. We lost 1.5 units.
In our model’s second pick of the night, we had Erick Koch to defeat Dustin Poirier. We didn’t place a bet on this one as we felt the line was not favourable. The fight quickly turned into a barn burner with both guys almost finishing chokes in the first round. The second round was mostly Poirier as he ended up on top and landed ground and pound for the majority of the round. The third round was better for Koch as he was on Poiriers back for more than half the round. The judges scored the fight
Our third bet of the night was the main event of the undercard: Jamie Varner vs Gleison Tibau. Our bet was 1.5 units on Varner at 1.72 to 1. In what turned out to be a very close fight, Tibau took the decision victory. Bascially he won by using his size to get on top of Varner and maintain control (for the first two rounds anyway). The third round saw Varner come out swinging hard, even rocking Tibau at one point and finishing the round on top. We lost 1.5 units.
Our second bet of the night was on a flyweight battle between Louis Gaudinot and Tim Elliot. We placed a 1 unit bet at 2.35 to 1, but as the fight approached, the line on Gaudinot climbed as high as 3 to 1. Unfortunately, this one did not turn out as well as the first. The stand up was pretty even throughout, but Elliot managed to get takedowns in every round where he was able to do damage to Gaudinot. The judges scored the fight 30-27, 30-26 and 30-26 in favour of Elliot. We lost 1 unit.
Our first bet of the night was on Soa Palelei to defeat Nikita Krylov. We got in on this bet at 2.7 to 1, but by fight time, the best odds available were just 2.2 to 1. In one of the worst UFC fights we have ever witnessed, Palelei took home the victory with a third round technical knockout. The first round was good with Palelei maintaining top control, but both guys looking incredibly exhausted. The second round saw Palelei on top for the first half, but the second half saw Krylov landing some powerful strikes. By the end of the round, if it weren’t for the fence, both guys would have likely been lying on the ground. In the third, Soa managed to get top position and he landed strike after strike to a downed Krylov, with just enough power for the referee to stop the fight. We profit 1.7 units.
Pettis over Henderson via first round submission. We lose 1.5 units
Mendes and Barnett defeat Guida and Mir. We profit 1.44 units
Rothwell over Vera via third round TKO. We lose 1.5 units
Tibau over Varner via split decision. We lose 1.5 units
Elliot over Gaudinot via unanimous decision. We lose 1 unit
Palelei over Krylov via 3rd round TKO. Profit of 1.7 units
Poirier over Koch via unanimous decision. Wrong prediction
Lim defeated Krauss via first round TKO
Camus defeated Kang via unanimous decision
Iaquinta defeated Couture via unanimous decision
Cedenblad defeated Hamman via first round submission