UFC Fight Night 28: Teixeira va Bader will be live from Belo Horizante, Brazil, this Wednesday night at 7pm ET. The lone Facebook prelim will be live at 4:30pm ET and the prelims start at 5pm ET on Fox Sports 1. Like some of the other recent cards from Brazil, there are a lot of unknown fighters and not very many big names. Unfortunately for us, this means there are only 2 fights we can predict on this card and they are the main and co-main events. In addition, both the guys we are picking are heavy favourites so we combined them into our lone bet, a 2 play parlay.
The main event will be a fight between the #3 light heavyweight in the world, Glover Teixeira and unranked Ryan Bader. Teixeira is a huge favourite, sitting as low as 1.25 to 1 on many sports books. Our model agrees with the sportsbooks. We have Teixeira taking the victory here more than 80% of the time. Both fighters stand 6’2″, with Teixeira having a 2 inch reach advantage at 76″. A brief look at the stats shows that Teixeira basically dominates in all areas of the game. 5.84 significant strikes per minute to Bader’s 2.56, 47% accuracy to Bader’s 38%, 3.89 takedowns per 15 minutes at 75% accuracy to Bader’s 3.28 at 43% accuracy, 100% of takedowns defended to Bader’s 50%. A brief look at the stats won’t normally be enough to justify a bet, but in this case we see very little chance of Bader winning. That combined with our model’s pick makes adding this to a parlay a no-brainer.
In the co-main event, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza makes his second octagon appearance where he will take on longtime top middleweight in the UFC, Yushin Okami. Okami did great for us in his last outing, taking the split decision victory, as an underdog, over Hector Lombard. We don’t see the same thing happening in this fight. Souza currently sits at 1.44 to 1. Souza was able to make quick work of Chris Camozzi in his last outing, locking up a first round arm triangle choke. Like Teixeira, but not to the same extent, our model heavily favours Souza. Therefore, we parlayed Souza and Teixeira in a parlay. We 1.5 unit bet at 1.74 to 1.
Teixeira and Souza to defeat Bader and Okami. 1.5 units at 1.74 to 1
Here are the latest odds for UFC Fight Night 28: