UFC 165 will go down this weekend from the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. While not a particularly stacked card overall, the main and co-main events both feature title defenses; a rarity in UFC history. You can see our main card picks and bets which have been up for over a week now. Full odds for the card came out yesterday and we are here to bring you our remaining picks. The Facebook prelims for this card start earlier than usual as they are 4 fights on the streamed portion of the event. They will begin at 6pm ET, with the Fox Sports 1 prelims at 8pm ET and the pay per view portion of the card in its usual 10pm ET time slot. Without further adue, on to the picks.
One play we added since our original article came out follows directly from our article where we looked at how UFC fights finish. You can see in that article that an incredible 81% of heavyweight fights result in one competitor being finished. The play we added is a 1 unit bet that Matt Mitrione vs Brendan Schaub will be under 1.5 rounds at 2.15 to 1. Schaub has shown a suspect chin (been knocked out 3 times), but also the power to finish (Cro-cop, Tuchscherer, Gormley). Mitrione has shown a stronger chin, but knockout power as well (De Fries, Morecraft, Hague, Slice, Jones). We see the likelihood of one of these guys not getting clipped as pretty remote so we are confident that our bet will cash.
The last fight that we are able to predict on the card is a bantamweight battle between Alex Caceres and Roland Delorme. We have Caceres as a favourite to take this one, but we are staying away at the current line of 1.75 to 1. In addition, a big factor that makes Caceres the favourite is his 100% takedown success. Looking at his history, he only has 1 career takedown in his 7 UFC fights. This fight will likely be a lot closer than our model predicts and it may actually go the way of Delorme.
In addition to the bets we have already given out, we placed a 1 unit bet on Nandor Guelmino to defeat Daniel Omielanczuk at 3.36 to 1. The reason Guelmino is so much of a dog is likely his quick submission loss to Josh Barnett. Realistically though, Josh Barnett, by almost all accounts is a top 10 heavyweight, and debatably a top 5 heavyweight in the world. Besides that loss though, the two guys are pretty even with a mix of victories over scrubs and decent competitors. In our opinion, Guelmino should be no higher than around 2.5 to 1, so we jumped at the opportunity to bet on him at 3.36 to 1. Note that we cannot predict this fight using our mathematical model and this prediction is purely based on an analysis of the competitors histories.
Barao vs Wineland over 2.5 rounds. 1 unit bet at 2.1 to 1
Mitrione vs Schaub under 1.5 rounds. 1 unit bet at 2.15 to 1
Carmont over Philippou. 1.5 unit bet at 2.8 to 1
Healy over Nurmagomedov. 1.5 unit bet at 2.9 to 1
Guelmino over Omielanczuk. 1 unit bet at 3.36 to 1
Jones over Gustafsson
Barao over Wineland
Mitrione over Schaub
Caceres over Delorme
Here are the latest UFC 165 odds: