UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson Results and Betting Recap

UFC 165 went down from the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. It was our first live UFC experience and what they say about the atmosphere being electric is an understatement. The crowd was absolutely nuts, especially as the main event drew closer and as Jones and Gustafsson battled for the light heavyweight title in what will go down as one of the best fights of 2013. Before we start with the outcomes, we have a couple observations from the event:

  • There were a lot of empty chairs, even as the main event got close.  Our upper deck seats were even $100, maybe the UFC is overestimating Canadian’s willingness to pay for MMA.
  • The “Go Leafs Go” chants added some comedic value to a pretty dull fight between Carmont and Philippou.
  • A beer at the event is $15, if you plan on drinking at the ACC, save up a bunch of money before hand.


The battle for the light heavyweight title between Gustafsson and Jones will go down as one of the best fights of 2013. In a fight Jones was supposed to dominate (we agreed with the lines and had Jones as a heavy favourite to take it), Gustafsson gave him all he could handle, landing multiple ferocious strikes and even cutting Jones open. In the end, Jones took a somewhat controversial decision. We are ok with the champ taking it however because you don’t really want a belt changing hands on a razor close split decision. We actually did a analysis a couple months ago looking at whether champions have an advantage in decisions and didn’t find enough evidence to say either way. We didn’t place a bet on this fight, but our model was correct in saying Jones would win.

The co-main event was a fight for the UFC interim bantamweight championship between current title holder, Renan Barao and Eddie Wineland. We felt that Wineland didn’t really deserve this title shot and Barao made him pay in the second round. For the first time in UFC history, a fighter was knocked out with a spinning back kick to the face…Barao delivered and Wineland received. Again in this fight, we didnt place a bet as the odds on Barao sat at a very poor 1.17 to 1. We did lose our 1 unit bet on the fight going over 2.5 rounds. That bet was more of a mathematical play based on the fact that the vast majority of bantamweight fights go to the judges score cards.

In the third fight of the main card, heavyweights Matt Mitrione and Brendan Schaub fought. We had Mitrione as a tiny favourite, but held off on placing a bet as the model was almost inconclusive it was so close. Instead, we placed a 1 unit bet at 2.15 to 1 that this fight would be less than 1.5 rounds. Schaub made our bet pay when he choked Mitrione out, and we profitted 1.15 units.

Our big profit of the night was the snooze fest between Carmont and Philippou. Carmont fought a very GSP inspired fight, doing just enough to get Philippou down and stay on top to take all 3 rounds on the judges score cards. It was a great display of wrestling to get Philippou on the ground, but not much else was displayed by either man. Our 1.5 unit bet profits 2.7 units.

We bet against Khabib Nurmagomedov in his match-up with Pat Healy and that was a mistake. Nurmagomedov controlled the majority of the action leading to a unanimous decision victory. We lost our 1.5 unit bet on Healy. Nurmagomedov is looking like a guy who will be challenging for the lightweight title in the next couple years.

Betting Results

Barao over Wineland via second round TKO. We lose our 1 unit bet on over 2.5 rounds
Schaub over Mitrione via first round submission. We profit 1.15 units on our 1 unit bet on under 1.5 rounds
Carmont over Philippou via unanimous decision. We profit 2.7 units on our 1.5 unit bet
Nurmagomedov over Healy via unanimous decision. We lose our 1.5 unit bet
Omielanczuk over Guelmino via third round TKO. We lose our 1 unit bet

Total Profit: 0.35 units
Return: 5.85%

Next up, UFC will be holding events 3 weeks in a row in October, on the 9th is UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields, on the 19th is UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos III and on the 26th is UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Munoz. We will have all three events covered, Stay Tuned! We also added our Bellator 100 results from Friday night where we recommended 2 plays and profited 0.30 units.

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