UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs Shields Results and Betting Recap

Last night was a decent night for the Fight Predictor. We only posted 3 bets and were 1-2, but our biggest underdog took home a W (and apparently a pink slip). Overall, we were up 1.78 units on the night and 50% accurate with our winner predictions. Not great numbers, but good since we chose our bets cautiously. The fights in general kind of lacked the action that we were hoping for. The fight of the night between TJ Dillashaw and Raphael Assuncao was even a mediocore contest at best. Before we begin, note too that we have decided to place a 1 unit bet on Joe Taimanglo to defeat Justin Wilcox at Bellator 103. The current odds sit at 5.15 to 1. Ridiculous value in our opinion after Wilcox’s leg was all but shattered by leg kicks he absorbed in his last fight with Akop Stepanyan.

Jake Shields and Demian Maia had a close fight, but unlike many close fights, there was limited excitement. Realistically, with two of the best jiu jitsu practitioners we shouldn’t have really expected too much excitement. We agreed with the decision victory for Shields. He maintained the top position for much more of the fight than Maia, and even though he didn’t land very many damaging strikes, the control was a big enough factor for us to award the fight to him. The loss for Maia kills our 3 play parlay which included 2 fights from UFC 166. We lost 1.5 units on the parlay.

Dong Hyun Kim, to the surprise of everyone, took home knock out of the night honours. His game plan was simple, yet effective. Push the pace and wear down the less experienced Silva. Just when Kim looked to be tiring, he landed an incredibly timed punch that sent Silva crashing to the canvas. Silva was out when he hit the mat, but for good measure, Hyun Kim landed an additional strike to his downed opponent. We didn’t place a bet on this fight as our model seemed unsure of the outcome, but did have the edge for Silva.

Thiago Silva and Matt Hamill had a relatively slow paced fight, with Silva looking to be in just awful shape. It speaks volumes to how far Hamill has fallen though, as he had no answer for Silva’s striking and looked to have worse cardio than his opponent. Silva ended up taking the obvious decision 30-27 x2 and 29-27.

Fabio Maldonado and Joey Beltran also had a boring light heavyweight fight. Both looked to struggle to last 3 rounds and Maldonado ended up taking the decision in a fight that we didn’t really care who won, we just wanted it to be over.

In our lone bet won of the night, Rousimar Palhares won with a quick heel hook on Mike Pierce. We profited 3.78 units. According to Dana White, Palhares will never fight in the UFC again, but we will have to see if that actually holds true. The guy could be a legitimate top 10 welterweight.

In the final bout of the main card, TJ Dillashaw and Raphael Assuncao fought to a very close split decision. Realistically, after 2 rounds, the score was all tied up and the third could easily have gone either way. Obviously, we hoped our predicted winner, Dillashaw, would take it home, but the judges saw it the other way awarding a split decision to Raphael Assuncao.

Betting Results

Silva over Hammill via decision. We lose our 1 unit bet on under 1.5 rounds.
Palhares over Pierce via submission. We win 3.78 units.
Maldonado over Beltran via decision. We lose our 1 unit bet on under 2.5 rounds.

Event Profit: 1.78 units
Bet Record: 1-2

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