It was incredibly close to a great night for the fight predictor. Had the judges scored the CB Dollaway vs Tim Boetsch fight correctly, we would have had a great return on our bets. As it turned out, they got it wrong and we end up losing 1.8 units. UFC 166 will go down in history as one of the greatest fight cards of all time with an exclamation point provided by the 3 round war between Diego Sanchez and Gilbert Melendez.
Our pick in the main event was Cain Velasquez to defeat Junior Dos Santos within the distance. Junior Dos Santos showed incredible heart, fighting back for all 5 rounds with Cain swarming on top of him. In the fifth round (cutting it closer than we’d like), JDS fell and looed to hit his head while attempting to choke Velasquez. Velasquez capitalized and got the TKO victory. We profit 1.35 units.
In the co-main event, we had the Roy Nelson and Daniel Cormier fight to be under 1.5 rounds. The bet was mostly a value play as the line was sitting at 3.4 to 1, which we felt was way too high for a heavyweight fight. Cormier wrestled Roy for most of the first, and although there was more striking in the second, neither fighter was close to being finished. We lost our 1 unit bet.
We had CB Dollaway to defeat Tim Boetsch in the UFC middleweight division. Dollaway looked to be the better man in round 1 and 2, but 2 accidental eye pokes in round 3 led to a lost point. Somehow, 2 judges scored in 30-26 Boetsch and 1 scored it 29-27 Dollaway. The 30-26 were probably the worst two score cards ever scored in MMA…period! We lost our 2 unit bet.
In a relatively slow fight, KJ Noons defeated George Sotiropoulos to open the Fox Sports 1 prelims. Sortiropoulos looked incredibly tentative throughout and seemed content to mostly throw and land leg kicks. We had Sotiropoulos winning round 2, but the case couldn’t really be made for rounds 1 and 3 to go Sotiropoulos’s way. We lost our 2 unit bet.
In our first bet of the night, we had the Adlan Amagov and TJ Waldburger fight going less than 1.5 rounds. Amagov made us look great when he knocked Waldburger out at 3 minutes of the first round. The knockout was the fourth finish of an exciting Facebook/Youtube preliminary card (keep an eye out for Fili and Horiguchi in the future!). Our 1.5 unit bet on the under profits 1.85 units.
Velasquez over Dos Santos via fifth round TKO. Profit of 1.35 units.
Nelson vs Cormier over 1.5 rounds. Loss of 1 unit.
Boetsch over Dollaway via split decision (30-26×2, 27-29). Loss of 2 units.
Noons over Sotiropoulos via unanimous decision (29-28×2, 30-27). Loss of 2 units.
Amagov over Waldburger via TKO at 3:00 in the first round. Profit of 1.85 units.
Melendez over Sanchez via unanimous decision (29-28×2, 30-27)
Gonzaga over Jordan via first round TKO.
Dodson over Montague via first round KO.
Lombard over Marquardt via first round TKO.
Eye over Kaufman via split decision (29-28×2, 28-29).
Ferguson over Rio via first round submission (d’arce choke).
Fili over Larsen via second round TKO.
Horiguchi over Pague via second round TKO.