The UFC will be live from Manchester, England this Saturday, October 26. The fights begin around 11:45 AM ET, so set your alarm clocks if you’re having a few pops Friday night! Unfortunately there are only a couple fights we can predict using our math model on this card, but luckily, there seems to be decent value elsewhere on the card. Without further adue, onto the picks!
Firstly, Lyoto Machida steps up to face Mark Munoz in the main event. There’s no debating the credentials of Lyoto Machida as he enters the middleweight division after being a beast in the light heavyweight division over the last 6 years or so. Machida will be looking to use his stellar takedown defense to avoid takedowns from the former NCAA division 1 wrestler Munoz. Munoz’s best chance of victory is to get Machida down and maintain the top position. Our model has Machida winning the majority of the time, but not as a massive favourite. As such, we can’t justify laying down the -345 that Machida currently sits at. We will however, lay down a 1 unit bet on the fight to be under 2.5 rounds at 1.42 to 1. Machida’s the likely victor and there is a great chance he finds Munoz’s chin within the first 2.5 rounds of this one.
In our second model pick, we have Melvin Guillard to defeat Ross Pearson in the lightweight division. Guillard comes into the fight off a KO victory over Mac Danzig, while Pearson enters the octagon with 2 straight TKO victories over Ryan Couture and George Sotiropoulos. In his last 6, Pearson’s only clear defeat came to Cub Swanson (he also had a split decision loss to Edson Barboza). He has also been more consistent recently, winning 4 of his last 6 while Guillard has won just 2. Based on our model picking Guillard and his recent inconsistencies, we cannot justify placing a bet at 1.74 to 1.
In our second bet of the night, we have Ryan Jimmo to defeat Jimmi Manuwa. Manuwa has shown in the past that he is a guy with major cardio issues. If Jimmo can withstand the initial barrage, he will have a great chance to take the victory in this one. There have been plenty of cases in MMA where the guy takes round 1 and burns out his gas tank only to end up losing the fight because of their poor cardio. We placed a 1 unit bet on Jimmo at 2.7 to 1.
In our final bet of the night, we have Andy Ogle to defeat Cole Miller. Miller has proved to be a relatively weak UFC featherweight, losing 3 of 4 since dropping down to the division. He does possess dangerous submissions however so Ogle will have to be careful not to get choked out. We placed a 1 unit bet on Ogle at 2.6 to 1.
Under 2.5 Machida vs Munoz. 1 unit at 2.35 to 1
Ogle over Miller. 1 unit at 2.6 to 1
Jimmo over Manuwa. 1 unit at 2.7 to 1
Here are the best fight odds for UFC Fight Night 30: Machida vs Munoz: