Tonight was the 20th anniversary of the UFC and what a night it was. We saw knockouts, submissions, decisions and of course judging controversy. We had 4 total bets on the card and unfortunately, our big underdogs Sonnen and Herman were not able to come through, so we ended the night with a slight loss of 0.15 units going 2-2 on our bets. Our model went a promising 5-3 on the night or 63% accuracy (not quite as high as we’d like, but high enough to profit if we place our bets smartly).
We would be amiss if we didn’t at least touch on the GSP/Hendricks fight even though we didn’t place a bet on it. Our model had GSP to take the victory and the likely path to victory we saw was a decision. Hendricks seemed to overpower and outstrike St Pierre for the majority of the fight, taking the 1st, 2nd and 4th rounds on our score card (impressively he didn’t tire nearly as badly as we expected in the championship rounds). Somehow, 2 out of 3 judges scored the fight in St Pierre’s favour and he retained his belt. In addition, he seemingly announced his retirement (at least temporarily) from the sport of MMA. Joe Rogan often talks about how you have to beat the champ to get the belt. The sport of MMA uses most of the same judges as boxing and they likely followed this philosophy Rogan speaks of in letting GSP retain his title.
In the co-main event, we had Chael Sonnen to defeat Rashad Evans. The two guys seem to be on different trajectories right now. Chael looked less in shape than he has recently and Evans entered the cage looking like a beast. It took Evans little time to get Sonnen down and as we’ve seen in the past, once Sonnen gets down and in trouble, he provides little resistance to taking a TKO victory. We lost our 3 unit bet.
In the welterweight division, we bet 3 units on Tyron Woodley to defeat Josh Koscheck when the line was up at 2 to 1. Woodley displayed impressive and powerful striking, dispatching of Koscheck late in round 1, but landing much more powerful strikes for the entire round. We profit 3 units.
In the lightweight division, we had Donald Cerrone to defeat Evan Dunham. Cerrone came out on fire, using incredible Muay Thai knees and elbows to batter Dunham. It took until the middle of round 2, but once they were on the ground, Cerrone was able to lock up a triangle choke, forcing Dunham to tap and taking home the big W. We profit 2.85 units.
In our first bet of the night, we had Ed Herman to defeat Thales Leites. While we didn’t watch the bout, the Twitter reaction was pretty universal that Leites took the victory handily (and in his typical boring fashion). We lost our 3 unit bet.
Evans over Sonnen via first round TKO. We lose our 3 unit bet.
Woodley over Koscheck via first round KO. We profit 3 units.
Cerrone over Dunham via second round submission. We profit 2.85 units.
Leites over Herman via unanimous decision. We lose our 3 unit bet.
St Pierre over Hendricks via split decision
Lawler over MacDonald via split decision
Bagautinov over Elliot via unanimous decision
Story over Ebersole via unanimous decision
Perez over Figueroa via unanimous decision
High over Lapsley via unanimous decision
Pettis over Campuzano via unanimous decision
Villante over Donavan via second round TKO
Next up is the TUF 18 Finale in 2 weeks on November 30.