UFC Fight Night 33: Bigfoot vs Hunt goes down this Friday, December 6 from the Brisbane Entertainment Center in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. The fights go down Friday instead of Saturday because the UFC wanted the fights to be during prime time hours in North America and there is a huge time difference between North America and Australia. The event should be incredibly entertaining as it features some of the heaviest hitters on the UFC’s roster and we expect a lot of damage to be done.
The main event from Australia will feature local hero and former 300 pound kick boxer Mark Hunt taking on Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. As we anticipated, Silva got pumped by Cain Velasquez after coming off two lucky wins (Browne injury and Overeem acting like an idiot). Silva’s last legitimate win came over Fedor Emelinaneko back in Strikeforce in February, 2011. Hunt, on the other hand has had a surprising UFC run, losing 6 straight, including his UFC debut before winning 4 straight by TKO. He then hung in for 3 rounds before taking a spinning kick to the face late in round 3 against Junior Dos Santos and losing by TKO. Hunt lands more strikes, absorbs fewer strikes and even lands and defends takedowns better than Silva. Our model has Hunt winning almost 80% of the time. We were able to get on Hunt at 2.5 to 1, but the line has since dropped so we recommend a rare 5 unit bet on Hunt at 2.35 to 1.
The co-main event features heavy hitting light heavyweights in Mauricio Rua and James Te Huna. Combined, Te Huna and Rua have an incredible 28 career knockout victories, so look for this one to stay standing. Te Huna managed to achieve a 4 fight win streak in the UFC before his weak ground game was exposed by Glover Teixeira who submitted Te Huna in 2:38 back in May. Rua is a legend of the sport, but his 29 career fights (many of which have been wars) seem to be starting to take a major toll. He is a relatively unimpressive 2-4 in his last 6 with his only victories coming over somewhat lesser competition in Griffin and Vera. The stats seem to favour Te Huna. He lands 4.38 strikes to Rua’s 3.56 and absorbs 2.77 to Rua’s 2.32. Te Huna lands more takedowns (3.09 to 2.34) and defends takedowns better (67% to 43%). Our model has Te Huna winning around 60% of the time, but we are not confident enough to place a bet at the current line of 1.87 to 1 where we’d have to win 53% of the time to break even anyway. The under 1.5 rounds currently sits at 2.35 to 1 and is very tempting, but not quite high enough with both guys having slightly longer fights than usual lately.
In the middle of the card, there’s another light heavyweight match-up between Anthony Perosh and Ryan Bader. Bader enters the fight off a TKO loss to Glover Teixeira where he actually looked pretty good rocking Teixeira (who is the next contender for Jon Jones’s title) at one point. The 41 year old Perosh enters the fight off an extremely surprising KO victory over the greatly overhyped Vinny Magalhaes. Bader is a heavy favourite to take the victory, which is not entirely surprising given that he is 11 years younger than his opponent and has been at various times a top 10 UFC light heavyweight. At 1.33 to 1 though, you’d have to be crazy to place a bet and even including Bader in a parlay would be questionable in our opinion. Our model has Bader winning 60-70% of the time.
In our last model pick of the main card, we have Pat “Hype or Die” Barry to defeat Soa Palelei about 75% of the time. Barry has been up and down in his UFC career, but a loss to Palelei would likely be devastating to his chances of ever contending. Palelei has won 9 straight since losing to Daniel Cormier back in November, 2010 at Xtreme MMA 3. He showed he has brutal cardio and is likely not a UFC level competitor, barely edging out a TKO victory at the start of round 3 versus Nikita Krylov who also looked brutal in that fight. Since Barry has dropped to 1.69 to 1, he is definitely worth at least a small bet. We placed a 3 unit bet on Barry at 1.69 to 1. In fact, our model sees this fight ending in TKO over 90% of the time. We placed our second bet of the night, 5 units on Barry and Palelei being under 1.5 rounds at 1.53 to 1.
Hunt over Silva. 5 units at 2.35 to 1
Barry over Palelei. 3 units at 1.69 to 1
Under 1.5 rounds Palelei vs Barry. 5 units at 1.53 to 1
Here are the best odds for UFC Fight Night 33: Bigfoot vs Hunt: