As everyone knows, the UFC’s biggest show of the year, Weidman vs Silva II, will be live in about a week and a half from now on pay-per-view. The event will go down in the UFC’s back yard of Las Vegas, Nevada. Our picks in the main and co-main events were posted over 2 weeks ago and with the main card lines released today, we are back to give our picks, tips and betting advice for the main card! By the way, if you haven’t picked up a copy of Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics, its a great book and well worth the $10 you have to spend!
To recap our previous post, we placed two bets. The first is on Chris Weidman to retain his middleweight championship when he faces Anderson Silva in a rematch of last July’s surprising upset. The bet we placed was 3 units and at the time, the line was 2.20 to 1. If you place that bet now though, you can get odds as high as 2.45 to 1. Our second bet was on the fight between Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate for the women’s bantamweight title to go over 1.5 rounds. We placed a 1.5 unit bet at 2.85 to 1, and that line has been stable since, sitting at the exact same payout today.
In a clash of giants, and an underrated fight on this card, Travis Browne will be taking on Josh Barnett. This fight is a classic type of fight with an up and comer facing an already established star. As is the case with many UFC heavyweights, the up and comer, Browne is actually 31 years old with a record of 15-1-1. Barnett is 36 years old with an overall record of 33-6. Barnett seems to be having a late career resurgence, going 9-1 in his last 10 in Affliction, Dream and Strikeforce. Browne has looked impressive throughout his career and could quite possibly be undefeated at this point had he not injured his knee against Antonio Silva. The impressive part about Barnett’s statistics, is his striking defense. The two men are pretty close in terms of strikes landed (2.44 Barnett, 2.76 Browne), but there is a huge difference in strikes absorbed (1.66 Barnett, 3.06 Browne). Leaving yourself open to strikes is definitely not a good way to fight in the UFC, especially the heavyweight division. Our model has Barnett as a decently big favourite to taste victory on December 28, but at current price of 1.43 to 1, we are going to hold off and possibly add him to a parlay as the fights approach. Where we do see immediate value, however, is the line on under 1.5 rounds. We placed a 3 unit bet on the under 1.5 rounds at 1.87 to 1.
The general sentiment for Camoes vs Miller is that Miller is going to win in destructive fashion. There is little to make us think this wouldn’t happen. Camoes is in his second stint in the UFC, and so far has amassed a record of 1-2-1. Miller is realistically just on another level to Camoes, even though he would likely only be considered an upper-middle tier UFC lightweight. Miller was, at one point on a 7 fight UFC win streak which was snapped by Benson Henderson back in 2011. He comes into this fight riding a 1-1-1 record in his last 3 with the lone loss to top 10 lightweight Nate Diaz (not including the submission loss to Pat Healy which was subsequently overturned). Surprisingly, our model only has Miller as a marginal favourite, but our in depth look at the match-up leads us to disregard the model output. While we are pretty confident Miller takes the victory, we’re not willing to lay 1.25 to 1 on him. Therefore, we will pass on a bet for this match-up.
It’s a similar story in Poirier vs Brandao. While Poirier is not a favourite to the same extent as Miller, we still definitely see him getting the W over Brandao. Again, our model has Poirier, the favourite, with a decently high probability of winning, but with the current line at 1.48 to 1, we won’t be placing a bet.
Stay tuned over the next couple weeks as we will be updating our bets if we feel the lines shift to the point where there’s value in placing a bet. You can follow us on Twitter or Facebook to get all the latest news, tips and bets.
Weidman over Silva. 3 units at 2.2 to 1
Over 1.5 Rounds Rousey vs Tate. 1.5 units at 2.85 to 1
Under 1.5 Rounds Barnett vs Browne. 3 units at 1.87 to 1
Here are the latest odds for UFC 168: Silva vs Weidman II: