UFC Fight Night 35 wasn’t great for the Fight Predictor. We ended the night down 3.86 units. With a great start to 2014 though, the loss isn’t all that bad as long as we can come back strong at UFC on Fox. Our bet on Derek Brunson was one that could have made a huge difference on the night as he dominated two rounds before succumbing to the heavy handed Romero. The main event saw Luke Rockhold absolutely destroy Costa Phlippou with a couple body shots, cementing his place in the top 10 for UFC middelweights. Here’s a full betting recap:
Our final bet of the night was on Lorenz Larkin and Brad Tavares to fight for more than 2.5 rounds. Larkin looked way worse than expected over the 3 round unanimous decision loss, but our bet cashed. We profit 1.74 units.
In the second leg of the Charlie Brenneman parlay which lost, we had TJ Dillashaw to defeat Mike Easton. Dillashaw had the advantage after 1, utilizing his slight speed advantage and his wrestling to inflict more damage on Easton. This speed advantage continued throughout. In a dominant performance, TJ Dillashaw defeated Mike Easton via unanimous decision.
In our second straight bet of the card, we had Derek Brunson to defeat Yoel Romero. The bet was 3 units at 3.37 to 1. By fight time, the line on Brunson had fallen to 2.85 to 1. Brunson absolutely proved us right that he shouldn’t have been up that high. Unfortunately, mixed martial arts fights last 3 rounds and he was rocked several times in the third by Romero (who seems to be making a habit of late finishes). Eventually it seemed Brunson’s will was gone and Romero was raining down body shots. The ref was forced to step in giving the TKO win to Romero. We lost our 3 unit bet.
In the second leg of our Ozkilic/Moraga parlay, we had John Moraga to defeat Dustin Ortiz. In the fight, Moraga was put on his back and Ortiz basically lay and pray for the majority of the first. Moraga showed signs of life in the second, rocking Ortiz several times in the stand up. The first half of the third was similar to the second round with Moraga showing strong striking and the second half of the third was similar to the first where Ortiz lay and pray. Moraga ended up taking a split decision victory, but it was too late as our parlay had already lost.
In our first straight bet of the card we had Ramsey Nijem to defeat Justin Edwards. In an unfortunate move, Nijem decided to stand up with Edwards for the first round. Edwards looked to be the more crisp strikerin the first. Fortunately for us, Nijem was able to effectively mix his wrestling in and seemed to find his striking range in the second and third giving him a unanimous decision victory. We profit 1.4 units.
Our second parlay of the night started with Alptekin Ozkilic taking on Louis Smolka. The first round was action packed. Ozkilic spent some time on top, but Smolka did more damage while they were standing. The second round was a similar story, except Ozkilic was able to do some damage early with his strikes. Importantly, Ozkilic got 2 takedowns right at the end of the round. The third round was all Smolka as he dominated and got off the mat quickly when Ozkilic attempted takedowns. It was a clear 29-28 for Smolka and the judges got it right. We lost our 2 unit bet.
We had Charlie Brenneman as one leg in a parlay to defeat Beneil Dariush. Once the fight started though, Brenneman’s chin didn’t hold up long. He rocked Dariush at one point, but was rocked in return and Dariush eventually took the victory via rear naked choke. We lost our 2 unit bet.
Correct Bets: Tavares and Larkin over 2.5 rounds. 1.74 unit profit
Nijem over Edwards. 1.40 unit profit
Lost Bets: Brunson over Romero. 2.00 unit loss
Brenneman/Dillashaw parlay. 2.00 unit loss
Ozkilic/Moraga. 2.00 unit loss
Betting Record: 2-3
Event Profit: -3.86 unit
Main Card Results
Rockhold over Philippou via first round TKO
Tavares over Larkin via unanimous decision (29-28 x3)
Dillashaw over Easton via unanimous decision (30-27 x3)
Romero over Brunson via third round TKO
Moraga over Ortiz via split decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Miller over Sicilia via second round submission (rear-naked choke)
Preliminary Card Results
Nijem over Edwards via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Silverio over Vallie-Flagg via unanimous decision (29-27 x3)
Smith over Houston via split decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Smolka over Ozkilic via unanimous decision (29-28 x3)
Pichel over Whiteley via unanimous decision (30-27 x3)
Dariush over Brenneman via first round submission (rear-naked choke)