UFC on Fox 10: Henderson vs Thomson is just 2 days away and will be live on Fox (obviously!). As usual, the card is split into Fight Pass Prelims, beginning at 4:30 pm ET, main prelims at 5:00 pm ET, on Sportsnet 360 and Fox Sports 1 and the main card at 8:00 pm ET, on Sportsnet and Fox. The event will be live from the United Center (home of the Blackhawks and Bulls) in Chicago, Illinois. We already brought you our main card predictions and bets, so we’re back to bring you the remainder of our picks! By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.
In the bantamweight division and in the co-main event of the prelims, Eddie Wineland and Yves Jabouin will clash. Our model has Wineland as the favourite to take the victory, and with a lack of losses to guys besides the very best (Barao, Benavidez, Faber), we strongly believe the model will be correct. Common opponents are not always the best measure for success, but they are a valid tool. In this case, Jabouin was knocked out by Brad Pickett in the first round of their fight, while Wineland was able to pull off a split decision win. Jabouin also was only able to defeat Dustin Pague by split decision…the same Dustin Pague who is on a 4 fight losing streak and is 1-5 in his last 6. We are pretty confident Wineland will pick up the decision win in this one so we added him to a parlay with our next pick.
That next pick is Daron Cruickshank to defeat Mike Rio. Rio is likely not a guy who should be fighting in the UFC, with 1 win and 2 losses in his UFC career and the only win coming over John Cofer (who?!?). Cruickshank has done a little better since entering the UFC off the Ultimate Fighter Live, going 3-2, including a KO win over Henry Martinez. We put the two in a parlay and placed a 2 unit bet at 1.83 to 1.
Outside of that, we see the line on the under 1.5 rounds in the fight between Nikita Krylov and Walt Harris as a little crazy. The line sits at 1.80 to 1 in a fight where Harris is down around 1.25 to 1. Harris’s by far most likely path to victory (and yes we do think he’ll win) is to TKO Krylov. In fact, in his UFC debut, where we felt Harris was a good betting candidate as his opponent Jared Rosholt had been steamed down like crazy, Harris almost earned the early knockout win before Rosholt was able to smother him for the remaining 2 and a half rounds. Krylov looked absolutely terrible against Soa Palelei and is likely the worst heavyweight on the roster. In fact, if there was a pound for pound worst, Krylov could land at number 1. Harris most likely makes quick work of Krylov so we placed a 3 unit bet on Harris/Krylov to be under 1.5 rounds.
Our final bet is another round bet on the fight between Junior Hernandez and Hugo Viana. Firstly, the fight is a bantamweight fight and more than half of bantamweight fights go to the judges. Further, Viana’s first 6 career wins came by way of decision. In his last 2 he is 1-1 with a TKO loss and a knockout win. We see those two fights as more of an outlier than a predictor of future performance. It’s not like Hernandez is some knockout king, or a guy who gets finished all the time. Sure, 9 of his 13 victories have come inside the distance, but that is pretty standard for guys with limited UFC experience. The low level of competition outside the UFC leads to an artificially high finish percentage. In addition, 4 of his 5 losses have taken the full 15 minutes to conclude. With Viana as the favourite and with the odds on the over 2.5 rounds at 2.1 to 1, we feel this bet is a steal. We placed a 2 unit bet on Hernandez/Viana to be over 2.5 rounds at 2.1 to 1.
Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest. In terms of event picks, following UFC on Fox 10: Henderson vs Thomson will be UFC 169: Barao vs Faber II. We will likely have our main card picks, predictions and bets out for UFC 169 tomorrow night or Saturday during the day so stay tuned! Don’t forget to grab yourself a copy of Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics…its a great read and well worth the $10 on Kindle.
Gonzaga over Miocic. 1.5 units at 3.00 to 1
Glass jaw parlay (Mir/Overeem and Gonzaga/Miocic under 1.5 rounds). 2 units at 2.25 to 1
Elkins over Stephens. 3 units at 2.16 to 1
Wineland and Cruickshank over Jabouin and Rio. 2 units at 1.83 to 1
Under 1.5 rounds Harris/Krylov. 3 units at 1.80 to 1
Over 2.5 rounds Hernandez/Viana. 2 units at 2.10 to 1