In a night that started very strong with 3 big wins in a row, we end up with a small loss. Our bet on Gonzaga and the glass jaw parlay probably weren’t the smartest so we’ll attempt to be a little more limited in the bets we place in the future. In total, we went 3-3 on our bets for a loss of 0.24 units. This brings our total profit over the last 4 events to 15.54 units going 11-7 on our bets.
Our final 2 bets of the night were both on the heavyweight co-main event between Gabriel Gonzaga and Stipe Miocic. Firstly, we had the glass jaw parlay which included this fight and Overeem/Mir at UFC 169 to be under 1.5 rounds. That bet was 2 units at 2.25 to 1. The second bet was a 1.5 unit bet on Gabriel Gonzaga at 3.00 to 1. The first round saw limited striking action. Gonzaga landed some vicious leg kicks which left Miocic limping, and it looked like Gonzaga took the round by a slight margin. The second round was all Miocic as Gonzaga looked absolutely gassed. In the third, Gonzaga didn’t look any better. He threw very few strikes and got hit a lot. We lost 3.5 units (1.5 on Gonzaga bet and 2 on parlay).
In the first fight of the main card, we had Darren Elkins to defeat Jeremy Stephens. We placed a 3 unit bet on Elkins to win at 2.16 to 1. The first round was all Stephens as he used his power and strength advantage to land quite a few solid strikes. The second round was similar although Stephens pace had slowed down a bit. Going into the third, we needed Elkins to get a miraculous finish. He threatened a bit in the last 10 seconds with a guillotine, but he couldn’t get the job done. We lost 3 units.
The second leg of our parlay on this card was Eddie Wineland to defeat Yves Jabouin. The first round was relatively even, it looked like Wineland got the slight better of it. Somehow the FightMetric stats showed Jabouin landed way more strikes, but that just wasn’t the case. In the second, Wineland started to land really effective strikes. He evetually knocked Jabouin down and took back mount to pound Jabouin out. The Wineland win has our parlay profit 1.66 units.
Our second bet of the night was 2 units on Hernandez and Viana to fight for more than 2.5 rounds. Viana landed some very powerful strikes in the first, but it looked like he used all his energy early on and his strikes didn’t have the same pop for the second and third round. Besides Hernandez threatening to finish towards the end of the fight, the fight didn’t look like it was going to finish inside the distance. We profit 2.2 units.
The first leg of our parlay on this card was Daron Cruickshank to defeat Mike Rio. Cruickshank made us look good as he finished a pretty even first with a flurry of strikes, almost knocking Rio out. In the second, Rio had a deep heel hook, but Cruickshank survived and when they stood up he was able to finish Rio with a spinning back kick and a flurry of punches.
Our first bet of the night was on the opening fight of the night between heavyweights Nikita Krylov and Walt Harris. We placed a 3 unit bet at 1.80 to 1 on the fight to be under 1.5 rounds. To many people’s surprise (us included), Krylov looked incredible, disposing of Harris with a crescent kick early in the first. We profit 2.4 units.
Good Bets: Wineland and Cruickshank. 1.66 unit profit
Hernandez/Viana over 2.5 rounds. 2.20 unit profit
Krylov/Harris under 1.5 rounds. 2.40 unit profit
Lost Bets: Miocic/Gonzaga and Overeem/Mir under 1.5 rounds. 2.00 unit loss
Gonzaga over Miocic. 1.5 unit loss
Elkins over Stephens. 3 unit loss
Betting Record: 3-3
Event Profit: -0.24 unit
Main Card Results
Henderson over Thomson via split decision
Miocic over Gonzaga via unanimous decision
Cerrone over Martins via first round TKO
Stephens over Elkins via unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Results
Caceres over Pettis via third round submission
Wineland over Jabouin via second round TKO
Camus over Meza via unanimous decision
Viana over Hernandez via unanimous decision
Cruickshank over Rio via first round TKO
Sullivan over Rhodes via unanimous decision
Krylov over Harris via first round TKO